TONY PENECALE’S PACQUIAO VS. MARGARITO In-Depth Preview and Analysis

Posted on | November 9, 2010 | 2 Comments

By Tony Penecale

For Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito, the stakes are extremely high going into their Saturday contest for the vacant WBC super-welterweight championship. Pacquiao is aiming for a record world title in eight different weight classes while keeping the pressure on Floyd Mayweather Jr. for a superfight in 2011. While Pacquiao has millions of reasons to need an impressive victory, it is plausible that Margarito needs it just a little bit more. Margarito had finally become a breakout superstar when he was found to have illegal substances in his handwraps before a bout with Shane Mosley. Not only was he soundly defeated by Mosley and suspended for 15 months, his prior accomplishments have been tarnished almost beyond repair. If he can derail the impressive Pac-man, he can restore some of the shine to his sullied reputation. When they meet in Dallas, who will come out on top?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Pacquiao:
Age: 31 years old
Record: 51-3-2 (38 Knockouts)
Height: 5’6”
Weight: 145 3/4 ** Weight for last bout (03-13-10)
Reach: 67”

Margarito:
Age: 32 years old
Record: 38-6 (27 Knockouts)
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 154 ** Weight for last bout (05-08-10)
Reach: 73”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Pacquiao:
WBC Flyweight Champion (’98-‘99)
IBF Super Bantamweight Champion (’01-’03)
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’08)
WBC Lightweight Champion (‘08)
IBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’09)
WBO Welterweight Champion (’09-Pres)
Ring Magazine #1 Rated Pound-4-Pound Boxer (’08-Prs)

Margarito:
WBO Welterweight Champion (’02-’07)
IBF Welterweight Champion (’08)
WBA Welterweight Champion (’08-‘09)

STYLE

Pacquiao:
Pacquiao boxes from a southpaw stance, moving forward bobbing and feinting his way in. Once in close, he uses his right hand to find the range and then unleashes his powerful left, either straight or looping, and will often double and triple it to the body and head. Uses quick head shifts to slip punches while moving forward. Has soundly developed under the tutelage of Freddie Roach, developing a decent right hook, either as a lead punch or thrown behind the left. Uses quick head shifts to slip punches while moving forward.

Margarito:
A tall, lanky fighter with long arms and power in both hands, Margarito fights aggressively, usually starting slow and finding the range for his straight right hand and left hook, thrown effectively to the body and head. Not afraid to take a punch, Margarito will stand directly in front of his opponents, using his superior strength to put them on the defensive. Once the action starts heating up, he fights like his moniker of “The Tijuana Tornado”.

STRENGTHS

Pacquiao:
* Unorthodox Style – Pacquiao is very unorthodox, even for a southpaw. He moves straight in but is hard to time with his bobbing and head feints. Before most opponents can time his onrushes, he is throwing whirlwind punches from a variety of angles.

* Speed – Pacquiao is quick and agile and his hands are deceptively fast. He throws rapid one-two combinations or multiple left hands and will force opponents on the defensive.

* Stamina – Pacquiao fights just as hard in the last round as he does in the beginning. He applies a lot of pressure and is constantly punching, wearing opponents down in the process.

Margarito:
* Aggressive Pressure – Margarito is a straight-forward pressure fighter who will frequently turn bouts into wars of attrition and slowly break his opponents mentally and physically.

* Chin – In bouts against respected punchers like Miguel Cotto, Kermit Cintron, Paul Williams, and Joshua Clottey, Margarito has stood toe-to-toe and taken their best offerings without blinking. Even his loss to Mosley, Margarito was able to withstand inordinate amount of punishment before finally getting stopped.

* Killer Instinct – Once an opponent is hurt, Margarito swarms power punches like a shark swarms to blood, attacking with an assortment of punches until his adversary is no longer standing.

WEAKNESSES

Pacquiao:
* Trouble with Boxers – Pacquiao is at his best when in against opponents who stand in front of him and try to trade as he usually overwhelms them. But he has had difficulties against good boxers, especially Juan Manuel Marquez, who was able to clearly outbox Pacquiao for extended periods in their two encounters.

* Cuts – Pacquiao has contended with cuts and scar tissue throughout his career. He was cut badly by headbutts in his fight with Agapito Sanchez and also in his first fight with Erik Morales. His fragile skin is always a potential liability.

* Distractions – Pacquiao is a popular celebrity in his native Philippines, involved in the country’s political agenda. His star is burning brightly and there is also the constant talk about a potential mega-fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr. All of this looms every time Pacquiao steps in the ring.

Margarito:
* Slow Feet – Margarito is a very methodical, plodding boxer who is notoriously slow-footed. Cotto who possesses average speed was able to outmaneuver Margarito for stretches and Mosley made him look like he had lead feet.

* Easy to Hit – Margarito certainly focuses more on offense but that leaves him open to be hit especially over the top of his long arms. He is very willing to take punches to land his own.

* Reputation – Ever since the scandal over his handwraps going into the Mosley fight, Margarito has had his reputation severely tarnished. Trying to redeem himself could prove to be a bigger obstacle than Manny Pacquiao.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Pacquiao:
(03-13-10) Scored a comprehensive but ultimately forgettable 12-round unanimous decision over Joshua Clottey. While Pacquiao dominated the action, Clottey fought passively and seemed content to avoid danger.

Margarito:
(05-08-10) In his first bout coming back from his suspension, Margarito won a lackluster 10-round unanimous decision over Roberto Garcia. While he won nearly every round, he didn’t come close to scoring a stoppage, raising additional questions about his lack of punching power without loaded wraps.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Pacquiao:
* Oscar De la Hoya (12/06/08) – Pacquiao stole the show from “The Golden Boy.” 90% of polled experts had picked De la Hoya to win in a landslide. It was a landslide but it was Pacquiao dishing out the beating, ripping De la Hoya apart with both hands. After eight one-sided and brutal rounds, a swollen and bloodied De la Hoya was beaten into permanent retirement.

* Miguel Cotto (11/14/09) – Pacquiao impressively dismantled the larger and physically imposing Cotto. Pacquiao dropped the Puerto Rican superstar twice early and from the 6th round on, had him in a defensive shell, battering him until the referee stopped the bout in the 12th round.

* Ricky Hatton (05/02/09) – Pacquio ran through Hatton in fast and destructive fashion. Hatton, while still an underdog, was expected to provide a challenge with his strength and mauling tactics. Pacquiao unveiled an improved right hook and had Hatton down twice in the 1st round before crushing him with a devastating knockout in the 2nd.

Margarito:
* Miguel Cotto (7-26-08) – Margarito cemented his star status by hammering the undefeated Cotto into defeat. Cotto boxed well early and built a solid lead. But Margarito walked through Cotto’s best punches and gradually wore him down; dropping him twice in the 11th round before the bout was halted.

* Kermit Cintron (4-12-08) – This was a rematch to Margarito’s dominant victory over Cintron three years prior. Many thought the roles would be reversed as Cintron had improved tremendously under the tutelage of Emmanuel Steward. None of that mattered in the ring as Margarito relentlessly pounded Cintron with right hands, finally deflating him for the count with a vicious body shot in the 6th round.

* Golden Johnson (11-10-07) – Coming off a decision loss to Paul Williams, it was wondered if Margarito was on the downslide. Margarito promised to start faster and he made good on that statement, attacking Johnson early and driving him to the canvas three times for a 1st round stoppage victory.

QUESTIONS

Pacquiao:

* Is he looking toward a lucrative fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr.?

* Will he become discouraged if he can’t hurt Margarito?

* Will his recent successes leave him overconfident?

Margarito:

* Can he keep up with Pacquiao’s speed?

* Does he truly believe in himself anymore?

* Can a win or an impressive showing fully restore his reputation?

PENECALE PREDICTION

Margarito is traditionally a slow starter and Pacquiao will come out quickly, probing with his jab to the head and body, while using his superior foot speed to continually move on angles. Margarito will plod ahead trying to set his feet and keep pace with the faster man. Pacquiao will continue to move forward but will show respect for Margarito’s strength and punching power, winning an uneventful opening round.

Pacquiao will take advantage of his superior speed in the 2nd round and use his right hook overtop of Margarito’s lead hand and set him up to land straight lefts right down the middle. Pacquiao’s speed with allow him to three or four punches to every one of Margarito’s one.

Margarito will increase his straight-forward pressure in the 3rd and 4th rounds, hoping to wear down the smaller Pacquiao. While he will have brief pockets of success, the advantage will still be in Pacquiao’s hands as he continues to hammer Margarito’s anvil chin with right hooks, left uppercuts, and other punches from a variety of angles.

While his iron chin will keep him on his feet, Margarito will continue to take punishment and, by the mid rounds, his face will start to show the effects with bruising and swelling around both eyes and blood from the mouth.

Pacquiao is a tremendous finisher and once he senses blood, he attacks like a shark. He will be outpunching Margarito and landing 50+% of his power shots, increasing the damage to the bigger man’s face. Referee Laurence Cole will confer with the doctor in the 8th round and alert the Margarito camp that he will stop the fight if he continues to take more punishment.

Pacquiao will have Margarito in full retreat mode, connecting with relentless power punches, snapping his head back, but unable to put him on the canvas. After another combination lands cleanly, Cole will step in and save Margarito from any further punishment. The winner by TKO at 2:29 of the 10th round is MANNY PACQUIAO!!!