TONY PENECALE’S PAVLIK VS TAYLOR REMATCH PREVIEW

Posted on | February 11, 2008 | 2 Comments

PAVLIK VS. TAYLOR II

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

In September, Kelly Pavlik ushered in a new era in the middleweight division. Where as Jermain Taylor had won the title on a controversial decision over long-reigning champion, Bernard Hopkins, Pavlik came in and ripped the title from Taylor in brutal fashion. Now Taylor returns, not for his title, but for pride. This bout is set at 166 lbs, so Pavlik’s title won’t be at stake. Can Taylor regain his form and avenge his only defeat as a professional? Or will Pavlik once again leave him battered and broken?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Pavlik: Age: 25 years old
Record: 32-0 (29 Knockouts)
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 159 1/2 * * Weight for last bout (9-29-07)
Reach: 75”

Taylor: Age: 29 years old
Record: 27-1-1 (17 Knockouts)
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 159 ** Weight for last bout (9-29-07)
Reach: 74”

STYLE

Pavlik: A tall and lanky brawler who likes to mix it up and throw knockout-caliber punches. Possesses crippling power in both hands and a fearless attitude. Often ignores height and reach advantages and presses the action, fighting in the trenches, turning bouts into wars of attrition.

Taylor: Is a well-schooled, technically-proficient boxer. Opens the bout behind a razor-sharp jab that keeps opponents off balance while dictating the pace. Also uses the jab to keep opponents moving back and creating openings for his straight right hand. In recent bouts, has shown a lack of killer instinct and has failed to capitalize on opportunities.

STRENGTHS

Pavlik: * Power – Pavlik is a highlight-reel puncher. Has the ability to knock an opponent out with one shot. The straight right is his best punch but is also capable of ending a bout with a left hook.

* Poise – Pavlik keeps his composure when under fire. Not afraid to walk into opponent’s danger zone and is anxious to retaliate when hit. Was down and in serious trouble against Taylor, but was able to weather the storm and regain his senses.

* Range – Pavlik is a tall fighter with long arms. He can land his power punches from the outside, but is also an effective puncher in close. Was able to outjab Taylor and set up openings for booming rights from afar and left hooks inside.

Taylor: * Athleticism – Taylor is a natural athlete who has a complete package of speed, agility, and above-average power. Was able to time Pavlik’s rushes and land damaging counters.

* Jab – Taylor owns quite possibly the best jab in boxing. It is fast and sharp, with the ability to hurt or cut an opponent.

* Experience – Taylor has been in there with future Hall of Famers Bernard Hopkins and Winky Wright in three straight bouts. Tallied defenses against sturdy, volume-puncher Kassim Ouma and speedy, defensive-specialist Corey Spinks before meeting the aggressive buzzsaw in Pavlik. Also competed in the 2000 Olympics, capping off an extensive amateur career. Has seen all types of styles in his fistic career.

WEAKNESSES

Pavlik: * Ignores Defense – Pavlik focuses so much on his own offense, he leaves himself open to be hit with flush punches. In the 2nd round against Taylor, it almost proved disastrous.

* Skin – Pavlik has skin that easily damages from opponent’s punches. In many bouts, he has come out with an assortment of bruises and lumps.

* Lack of Speed – Pavlik lacks natural hand and foot speed, much less than Taylor. Compensates by getting his punches off first.

Taylor: * Fades Late – Taylor often boxes in a very tense manner which causes him to fade as the bout progresses. In both bouts against Hopkins and also against Ouma, Taylor was visibly tired in the later rounds and allowed his opponents to capture the momentum.

* Confidence – Taylor has seemed gun-shy since being wobbled in his first bout with Hopkins, failing to engage the smaller Ouma and Spinks, and was tentative when he had Pavlik in serious trouble. After his devastating knockout loss, Taylor’s psyche might be beyond repair.

* Training Carousal – Taylor didn’t gel with the offensive-minded strategies of legendary trainer Emmanuel Stewart. He is now going back to his amateur roots and working with his first trainer Ozell Nelson, who has a very limited resume, much less than the man he is replacing.

BEST PERFORMANCES

Pavlik: * Edison Miranda (5/19/07) – Miranda was touted to be the new HBO star and Pavlik was seen as a mere stepping stone on the way to a dream match with Taylor. But Pavlik took the fight to Miranda from the start, wearing him down before impressively blasting him out in the 7th round.

* Jermain Taylor (9/29/07) – Pavlik didn’t allow Taylor to box, using a stiff jab to negate Taylor’s. Survived a brutal 2nd round and resumed his offensive attack, forcing Taylor on his heels. With Taylor curiously ahead after six rounds, Pavlik finished the job, trapping Taylor in a corner and hammering him to the canvas with a series of power punches.

* Jose Luis Zertuche (1/27/07) – Zertuche had never been down in his boxing career (pro or amateur). Pavlik punished him, knocking him down with a left hook, before finally knocking him cold with a single right hand in the 8th round.

Taylor: * Daniel Edourd (2/19/05) – Edourd was an undefeated brawler, a short spark-plug, that many thought would give Taylor fits. Taylor dominated from the opening bell landing his jab at will and overwhelming Edourd with power shots until the bout was halted in the 3rd round.

* William Joppy (12/4/04) – Joppy was a former world titlist who was looking to get back in the title picture. Taylor dominated him over 12 rounds boxing well, scoring a knockdown in the 5th round, and winning every round on the judge’s scorecards.

* Bernard Hopkins (7/16/05) – While many thought Hopkins deserved the decision, it doesn’t take away from what Taylor did in the bout. He gave Hopkins fits throughout, controlling the pace with the jab, and ended his decade-long title reign.

QUESTIONS

Pavlik: * Will he lack motivation with his title not at stake?

* If he runs into trouble, can he survive like he did the first time?

* If Taylor finds early success, will he make any changes to his original gameplan?

Taylor: * Will the added weight make an impact?

* If he gets hurt early, will his confidence crumble?

* Can working with his original trainer have the impact hoped for?

TO WIN

Pavlik: Pavlik must not allow Taylor to get any confidence early. Pavlik will need to once again jab in sync with Taylor and neutralize his best weapon. To avoid the counter right hands, Pavlik will be best served to fire two and three jabs at a time. Taylor has a bad habit of backing up against the ropes. Once he backs Taylor up, Pavlik need to bring his show-stopping right hand straight down the middle. Pavlik has a tremendous killer instinct once an opponent is hurt but he must not be over aggressive and leave himself open to counter punches.

Taylor: Taylor will stick and move. Pavlik was able to land his jab against Taylor and eliminate Taylor’s best weapon. Taylor will need to feint, move, and jab to avoid having Pavlik walk him down. If he can get Pavlik off balance, he will be able to create an opening for his right hand, both straight down the middle, and over the top of Pavlik’s left. He needs to discourage Pavlik early to avoid him building on the momentum of the first fight. If he gets Pavlik in trouble, he needs to do a better job of landing punches and avoiding getting tied up inside.

PENECALE PREDICTION

When they met back in September, Pavlik found his success by stalking Taylor and eventually overwhelming him with power punches. Taylor found his brief moments of success when Pavlik got sloppy and left himself open to counters.

Pavlik will start the bout with his trademark aggression, stalking Taylor. Taylor will use lateral movement to try and keep Pavlik from setting his feet and finding openings. Taylor will fire his jab but more for defensive purposes. Pavlik will keep advancing behind his thumping double and triple jab, which will snap Taylor’s head back.

There will be brief moments in the 2nd round where Taylor will try to stand in front of Pavlik and land counter right hands, but not to the success he found in their first meeting. Pavlik will take advantage of Taylor’s moments of being stationary to land right hands of his own, clearly more damaging.

By the 4th round, Pavlik will be shifting his offense into another gear while Taylor will seem to be stuck in neutral. Taylor’s offense will be reduced to single jabs as he will be more consistently forced backwards by Pavlik’s forward march.

A visibly discouraged Taylor will come out for the 5 th round, where he will attempt to change the momentum in his favor. The fighters will exchange right hands in the center of the ring, but Pavlik’s will do more damage, as it catches Taylor flush and staggers him. Pavlik will sense blood and will follow Taylor back into the corner where a left hook-straight right combo will hit home and Taylor will go down hard. He will try to beat the count but he will be unable, rising just as the referee completes the count.

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