NEW FNU MMA WRITER MATTHEW BROTHERS MAKES HIS UFC FIGHT NIGHT 13 PICKS

Posted on | March 20, 2008 | 1 Comment

UFC Fight Night 13 Preview & Picks

By Matthew Brothers

Greetings fight fans! The UFC’s next installment of “Ultimate Fight Night” on the Spike network takes place Wednesday April 2, in Broomfield, Colorado. The card, which will air directly before the premiere of the upcoming “TUF” season, boasts 12 scheduled bouts, 5 of which we’re guaranteed to see. It should certainly be an awesome night for cable-subscribing MMA fans as well as lovers of the 155lb. division. In the paragraphs to come, I’m going to run down the entire card match-by-match, and give you my thoughts and predictions on who should win and why.

The night begins with welterweight action as Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (4-1) takes on “TUF” season 6 finalist Tommy “Farmboy” Speer (9-2). Both men have suffered losses in their last bout so we know they’re both feeling the pressure of a win. Speer is a wrestler with some serious ground’n’pound, so as we’ve seen before, he’ll be looking to take Johnson to the mat and grind him out. In the other corner, as seen in his 13 second knockout of Chad Reiner, Johnson has quick hands and knows how to use them. I see Speer trying to strike with Johnson in the beginning but then working his takedowns. When on the ground it will be all Speer so the fight comes down to the question of can Johnson keep it standing? My prediction is first round TKO victory for Johnson or a decision victory for Speer. In the interest of making a firm pick, I’ll take Johnson in the first. Interesting side story for this fight, Anthony Johnson was a rejected tryout for “TUF” season 6 so if he can secure a victory over Speer, one can only imagine how he would have fared on the show.

More “TUF 6” veterans in match two as George Sotiropoulos (8-2) fights Roman “The Emperor” Mitichyan (5-1). If you’re a viewer of “TUF” you might remember that although a selected member of the cast, Mitichyan was forced out of the show on the first episode due to a broken elbow and his antics after learning he would not be allowed to compete will surely be remembered as hilarious as well as unfortunate. Sotiropoulos on the other hand fared very well on the show and was a favorite to win until he met a red-headed farmboy with a mean right hand. Although against arguably weak competition, both men won their matches at the “TUF 6” and now that the initial UFC jitters are gone, it’s time for both men to try and make a mark at 170. The Armenian Mitichyan is a submission specialist with backgrounds in wrestling, sambo, and judo. Sotiropoulos is now a student at Serra Jiu-Jitsu and is also fond of the submission game. Unless one of these guys has learned some serious striking in the last few months, I’d say a ground battle is inevitable. I’d call this bout a sleeper pick for fight of the night honors. Surprisingly even to myself, I’m leaning toward Mitichyan on this one, probably in the second or third round. Either way, expect a submission victory.

Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (22-9) battles Frenchman Samy Schiavo (10-4) in Schiavo’s UFC debut. I will admit that Guida is one of my favorite fighters to watch and pushes the pace to break-neck speeds, which makes it interesting that he’s a fighting a man who has had all but 1 of his last 13 fights end in round one. I’m intrigued by this match not only because I’m a Guida fan, but because he’ll be taking on a guy who thrives in Guida’s environment. I never thought I’d say this but Guida needs to slow down for this fight. Schiavo is going to have octagon jitters and will probably come out guns blazing. If Guida can weather the storm while raining down his own lightning, he should take this fight with ease. Guida is a warrior and I see him imposing his will on Schiavo and taking a victory by TKO either late in the first round or in the second.

In the fourth match of the night it’s Jeff “The Grinder” Cox (9-4) against Manny “The Anvil” Gamburyan (7-2). For those of you who don’t know a lot about Manny Gamburyan I’ll tell you something that says a lot, he has gone the distance with Sean Sherk. Jeff Cox is a formidable opponent at 155lbs., but look for Gamburyan to win this one with his tenacity and powerful judo skills. I see him shooting in and taking Cox down, grinding him down and submitting him. Gamburyan by submission in the first. Hopefully in the future we can see a Gamburyan vs. Diaz rematch.

Switching gears from young blood to veterans of the UFC we have Josh “The Dentist” Neer (23-6-1) against Din Thomas (20-7). American Top-Team member Thomas is coming back from blowing out his knee in his first round loss to Kenny Florian and Miletich Fighting Systems trained Neer is coming back to the UFC after back-to-back losses in ’06. He’s since won 6 of 7 fights and is back in the big show looking to showcase his improved striking skills. I am predicting this fight to go to a decision with Neer being favored on the feet and Thomas being favored on the ground. I’ll be putting my money on Neer for this one although I do hope that Din can bounce back from the injury and stay competitive in the UFC.

Due to a shoulder injury, Spencer “The King” Fisher (20-4) is out of his match against BJJ specialist Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (15-5). The news is obviously bad for Fisher who was looking to get another notch in the win column after his UFC 78 loss to Frankie Edgar, however, the news is good for Ryan Roberts (8-2) who will now be given his first chance to shine in the UFC. Roberts, who has been fighting in smaller shows in the midwest will be facing stiff competition against Aurelio and although Roberts has shown the ability to grapple and stand, he has yet to face someone with such a high ranking status in Jiu-Jitsu such as Aurelio. I think this fight should go to the ground pretty quickly and I predict a win for Aurelio. In my mind, a first or second round submission seems likely, but in MMA, never say never.

Although it’s being called a swing bout that may be televised if time permits which technically designates it as an undercard bout, I think a front-runner for fight of the night has to be Gray “The Bully” Maynard (4-0) versus Frankie “The Answer” Edgar(8-0). Maynard is a very strong wrestler who trains with Extreme Couture while Edgar is a New Jersey native who currently sports an undefeated record with wins over Spencer Fisher and Tyson Griffin. I am incredibly pumped for this match and although I think Edgar is and will be the favorite in many peoples eyes, Gray Maynard is no joke and is not to be taken lightly, just ask Joe Veres. Bottom line is both of these guys are tremendous wrestlers and young and poised to make their individual impacts at 155. Edgar is already being talked about for a title shot in the near future so a win over Maynard would only stand to solidify him as a force in the division. On the other hand, if Maynard can score the upset and beat Edgar, he will immediately gain contender status, either way, I’m hoping we’ll get to see this fight aired. My official prediction for this fight is Edgar by submission in the third round.

Now we move on to the bouts we’re guaranteed to see, and to start us off, we have what will surely be a technical ground battle as “TUF 5” winner Nathan Diaz (8-2) takes on Kurt Pellegrino (11-3). I’m really pumped for this fight and I think it will be a great step-up for Diaz. Nate is undefeated since joining the UFC and has looked great in all of his fights. Pellegrino is a veteran of the sport and after his amazing performance against Joe Stevenson, this is a guy who clearly has no shortage of heart and we even saw his stand-up showcased against Alberto Crane. I would love to get a better idea of how Diaz would fair in a stand-up battle, but I don’t think this will be the fight to see that. I see Pellegrino as being more comfortable on the feet which will eventually lead to Diaz taking him down. This is a tough fight to call because both guys are so tough but I have to pick Kurt for this one. He’s got the experience and the ground skills to submit Diaz or beat him standing. I’d be lying if I said a part of me wasn’t pulling for Nate but look for a TKO victory for Pellegrino in the third round.

Houston Alexander (8-2) shocked us all when he destroyed Keith Jardine and Alessio Sakara and you couldn’t help but get excited about his future in the UFC. Unfortunately, his ground game was exposed as less than stellar in his lopsided loss to Thiago Silva. James “Sandman” Irvin’s (13-4) highlight reel KO of Terry Martin put him on the mma map in a big way back in ’05 but since then, he’s failed to impress going 4-3 with his last win coming from DQ. To me, this is a clear attempt to give the UFC fans a slugfest that should end in a KO. Let’s face it, everyone loves a brawl with big tough guys throwing big tough punches, but I don’t think either of these guys will be fighting for a title any time soon. Sure, Alexander has a win over Jardine who is definitely in the title picture, but don’t expect a Alexander/Jardine rematch to go the same way. I’m calling this a pick’em fight, with your winner taking it in round one by TKO/KO. In an attempt to be decisive, I’ll take Houston.

Everyone loves an against-all-odds story. In my hunmble opinion, anyone who can work, train, bleed, sweat, and persevere and become a successful fighter in the world of mma has definitely beat the odds. Now, imagine you have all the same obstacles to conquer, except you’re deaf in both ears. Ponder that for a moment and you’ll get an idea of how tough Ohio native Matt “The Hammer” Hamill (3-1) is. He was absolutely ROBBED in his decision loss to Michael Bisping in Bisping’s backyard and being a Hamill fan, I hope he can get a victory over the very intimidating Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch (7-1). Boetsch is coming off of an impressive TKO victory over David Heath which placed him solidly on the “fighters to watch in ’08” list. Although Hamill is a wrestler, he out punched Bisping in their match so it will be interesting to see if he tries to stand with Boetsch or works his takedowns into some ground’n’pound. Boetsch, who impressed me and everyone else with his use of the push-kick against Heath should probably be considered the better striker of the two. If Hamill can get Boetsch down and hold him there, he can secure the win. Unfortunately, I can see this fight being a snoozer if Boetsch isn’t able to sprawl and get back up after the inevitable takedown. I’m picking this for an early TKO/KO win for Boetsch or a decision victory for Hamill.

Karo “The Heat” Parisyan (18-4) does battle with Thiago Alves (13-3) in a match which without question has title shot implications. The Judo black-belt Karo has been just a hair away from a title-shot more than once in his career, and many think if he hadn’t lost the decision to Diego Sanchez back in ’06, he would certainly have gotten that shot. The word from the UFC is that Jon Fitch gets the winner of GSP/Serra II which means it may be likely that the winner of this fight may get the winner of that bout. Tough to pick a winner for this fight because both men are so good at what they do. Karo is a judo phenom who is amazingly hard to finish, in fact, no one has finished Karo since Jan. of ’01. Alves is a Brazilian who is a great finisher who owns a four-fight win streak in the UFC. This fight will come down to can Alves finish Karo on the feet or can Karo work his ground game and grind Alves out for a decision win? I so badly want to see a decisive finish for Karo but if history is any lesson, Karo simply doesn’t finish fights, he’s had 11 of his last 13 fights go to a decision. On the other hand, Karo is a tremendous talent and should never be counted out, after all, at the end of the day, what’s more important than the W? I’m going to go out on a limb and say I do not think this fight will go to a decision. I’m going to call a first round TKO/KO for Karo over Alves. Hopefully, “The Heat” can be hot for once.

Now onto our main event of the night and if you’re an MMA fan from Massachusetts, surely you’ll be passionate about this one. Joe Lauzon (16-3) takes on Kenny Florian (8-3) in the main event of Ultimate Fight Night 13. I am a huge fan of both of these guys, and in February I had the honor of meeting and talking with Kenny at a local show in Massachusetts, at the time, I told Kenny I thought he’d beat Joe via submission in the second round. Since then, I’ve done a flip-flop and now I’m leaning towards Lauzon. I’ve been doing my research on Joe and have become a big fan of his. His recent stint training with B.J. Penn can only further solidify him as a threat at 155. Joe can definitely grapple, he’s super fast, and if you doubt his striking skills ask former champ Jens Pulver how hard Joe hits. Kenny Florian’s mantra is “I finish fights.” Since his time of “TUF 1” he has improved every aspect of his game and if he can get the win over Joe, has to be towards the top of the heap at 155. Out of all the weight classes in the UFC, 155 is the one that makes me not envy matchmaker Joe Silva’s job. So many tough fighters, with a champion who is arguably the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world. To break it down, I see both fighters coming out swinging yet tentative, with whoever loses the striking war taking it to the ground. Once on the ground, I give the edge to Florian but I can also see the tenacity of Lauzon being too much for Kenny to handle. You know it’s a good fight when you can’t even conceive a winner, I think that all the folks out there who aren’t familiar with Lauzon, this is going to be a big slap in the face wake up call. On my cards, I’ve got Lauzon taking this fight in the second round by submission. Phew! There I said it, Lauzon will beat Florian!

If you’ve made it all the way through this novel I commend you. At the end of the day, MMA is the most exciting sport in the world because anything can happen. Anyone can get caught and even the best do. I stand by my picks but they are undoubtedly just the thoughts of an MMA junkie and although I do have a successful betting record on MMA, there’s a lot of tough fights to call on this card. Regardless of the outcomes, I’m always pleased when the UFC gives us a free fight card, and for the fans in attendance in Broomfield, you are all lucky ducks! Name another UFC fight card with 12 fights. That’s it for me, hopefully Rich lets me write more of these things but until then, enjoy the fights and the “TUF 7” premiere. I’m knocked outta here.

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