TONY PENECALE’S HOPKINS VS. CALZAGHE PREVIEW AND PREDICTION

Posted on | April 16, 2008 | No Comments

HOPKINS VS. CALZAGHE

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

With the multiple alphabet titles today, it is common to see two titlists square off. But since Ring Magazine instituted its championship policy in 2002 of only one recognized champion per division, matchups between the recognized champions have been few and far in between. This Saturday, long reigning middleweight champion and current light heavyweight champion, Bernard Hopkins matches up against current super middleweight champion, Joe Calzaghe, an undefeated Welshman who is venturing to the United States for the first time. It also marks a bout between two of the top five fighters in the sport today as Hopkins is ranked at #4 and Calzaghe at #5. It is a matchup pitting the guile and smarts of the crafty Hopkins against the speed and aggressive style of the favored Calzaghe. In what could be the swan song for Hopkins, will he leave as champion? Or will Calzaghe come to America and claim his title?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Hopkins: Age: 43 years old
Record: 48-4-1 (32 Knockouts)
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 170 ** Weight for last bout (7-21-07)
Reach: 75”

Calzaghe: Age: 36 years old
Record: 44-0 (32 Knockouts)
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 166 * * Weight for last bout (11-3-07)
Reach: 73”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Hopkins: IBF Middleweight Champion (’95-‘05)
WBC Middleweight Champion (’01-‘05)
WBA Middleweight Champion (’01-’05)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’97-’99, ’00)
WBO Middleweight Champion (’04-’05)
Ring Magazine Middleweight Champion (’01-’05)
IBO Light Heavyweight Champion (’06-Pres)
Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Champion (’06-Pres)
Pound-for-Pound #1 Boxer (’02-’05)

Calzaghe: WBO Super Middleweight Champion (’97-’Pres)
IBF Super Middleweight Champion (’06)
WBA Super Middleweight Champion (’07-Pres)
WBC Super Middleweight Champion (’07-Pres)
Ring Magazine Super Middleweight Champion (’07-Pres)

STYLE

Hopkins: Is no longer the fighter who would apply pressure from the opening bell, winging right hands and left hooks until his opponent succumbed. That version of Hopkins evolved into the patient boxer-puncher seen today several years ago. Uses footwork and works angles well to keep opponents moving and off-balance, dictating the pace with his jab and opening up opportunities for his sharp straight right and left hook. Once in close, will attack the body and use rough-house tactics on the inside, including low blows and elbows. Is also a very tough and physically strong fighter.

Calzaghe: A southpaw punching machine. Calzaghe moves forward and throws punches in bunches, often averaging 75-80 punches per round. Calzaghe works behind his southpaw jab and uses his fast hands to fire combinations to the head and body. Is always in tremendous condition and can keep up a torrid pace in the late rounds. Sometimes will ignore defense when trying to open up his own offense.

STRENGTHS

Hopkins: * Student of the Game – There is not a style today that Hopkins hasn’t seen. From his early career in Philadelphia clubs all the way to his PPV main events, Hopkins has faced and defeated all types of styles including a number of world-class southpaws.

* Defense – Trying to land a clean punch, much less a combination, on Hopkins is like trying to hold water in your hands. Hopkins will block, slip, and parry most punches that come his way, but his best defensive maneuver is the “shoulder roll” where he will make his opponent miss by rolling with the punch and then fire back with a right hand or uppercut at his wide-open adversary.

* Confidence – Hopkins believes that he can handle any opponent at any weight. He is fearless in the ring and will not back down. Often times, his steely demeanor will have opponents unnerved and already beaten when they step into the ring.

Calzaghe: * Speed – Calzaghe has extremely quick hands and uses his rapid-fire punching attack to land punches and keep opponents on the defense. His advantage in speed has carried him to victories over younger and harder-punching adversaries.

* Work Ethic – Calzaghe averages over 80 punches per round and most opponents can not keep pace with him. He often picks up the pace in the later rounds and dominates in the championship rounds.

* Youth – For a 36-year-old veteran of 44 fights, Calzaghe is very fresh. He hasn’t taken a lot of punishment in his career and he fights at a younger man’s pace.

WEAKNESSES

Hopkins: * Too Patient – Hopkins likes to work from the outside and pick his shots. Often times, he waits too long and opponents are able to steal rounds. He gave away early rounds in his bouts against Roy Jones, Oscar De la Hoya, and Jermain Taylor before rallying late. In the case of both Taylor bouts and the Jones bout, it was too late and Hopkins ended up on the losing side of the decision.

* Enemies – Hopkins has a reputation of making enemies, whether it is battling with promoters, arguing with broadcasters, throwing an opponent’s flag on the ground, or as he did most recently, making racial comments. While this often doesn’t equate to an in-ring weakness, it does leave a sour taste in the mouth of many officials, and can be very influential in close fights.

* Fading Power – The Executioner’s Axe seems to have dulled over the years. The younger version of Hopkins was capable of taking out an opponent with one punch like he did to Steve Frank and Joe Lipsey. Those who stood up to his punches were issued frightful beatings. The modern version of Hopkins doesn’t carry the same pop in his gloves. Only one of his last six wins has ended inside the distance.

Calzaghe: * Punching Power – Calzaghe doesn’t own devastating power in either hand. Most of his stoppage victories have come from an accumulation of punishment over the course of a fight. If behind on the scorecards, it is unlikely that Calzaghe can win with a dramatic KO.

* Inconsistent – In his best wins, Calzaghe has been excellent. But he has looked very inconsistent in other bouts. He looked very uninspired against David Starie and encountered some rough moments against the tough but limited Omar Sheika and Sakio Bika. When Calzaghe is on, he is spectacular. When he is off, he is ordinary.

* Unfamiliar Surroundings – Calzaghe has spent his entire career in Wales and Great Britain. And even though, he expects to have a large contingent of fans traveling overseas with him, it will still be the first time that he steps out of his comfort zone and fights in the United States, with differences in climate and altitude.

LAST BOUT

Hopkins: Unanimous Decision over Winky Wright (7/21/07) – This bout was for the Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Title which Hopkins held and was contested at a catch-weight of 170 lbs. Wright, a slick southpaw and defensive master, was a slight favorite coming in, despite never having competed over 160 lbs. After falling behind early, Hopkins gradually wore Wright down with his rough house tactics, sweeping the final four rounds in winning a unanimous decision.

Calzaghe: Unanimous Decision over Mikkel Kessler (11/3/07) – In a bout for all the alphabet title belts and more importantly, recognition from Ring Magazine as the Super Middleweight Champion, Calzaghe was successful in outpunching a surprisingly timid Kessler. Even with Kessler being the younger fighter, it was Calzaghe who finished stronger in winning a unanimous decision.

BEST PERFORMANCES

Hopkins: * Felix Trinidad (9/29/01) – Hopkins was the IBF and WBC middleweight champion coming into this unification bout but he was overshadowed by the Puerto Rican superstar and a 3-1 underdog going in. While he promised to match Trinidad in a rough and dirty fight, he shocked everyone, especially Trinidad, by boxing early and building a commanding lead. Trinidad was visibly frustrated going into the latter half of the bout and attacked without abandon. Hopkins took full advantage and punished Trinidad with a variety of powerpunches, wobbling him at the end of the 10th before finishing him in the 12th to become the unified champion and owner of the Sugar Ray Robinson trophy.

* Glen Johnson (7/20/97) – At the time, it looked like this bout was a masterful win over a boxer with an undefeated albeit padded record. It has become more impressive considering that Johnson has since won versions of the light heavyweight title and scored a spectacular knockout over Roy Jones. Johnson came into the bout with an impressive punch, solid chin, and rugged determination. But it was all Hopkins from the opening bell as he dished out a frightful beating on the inside. Hopkins continued the assault each round, forcing the referee to visit Johnson’s corner several times, before finally halting the contest in the 11th.

* Robert Allen (2/6/99) – In their first encounter, six months prior, Allen had greatly troubled Hopkins with his physical southpaw style before an aggressive Mills Lane attempt to break a clinch resulted in Hopkins falling out of the ring and spraining an ankle. Before the rematch, Allen boasted that Hopkins had taken the easy way out and would be dethroned in the rematch. The Hopkins that entered the ring was focused and seething and punished Allen without mercy, knocking him down in the 2nd and 6th rounds. Allen’s only chance was to try and initiate a disqualification by flopping every time Hopkins landed on his waistline. Another brutal volley in the 7th forced the referee to stop the bout, amid protests from Allen’s camp, to which the referee responded “I don’t see him (Allen) complaining.”

* Antonio Tarver (6/10/06) – This was billed as Hopkin’s retirement bout and he was stepping up to a big challenge, taking on the naturally larger light heavyweight champion. Hopkins, coming off of two decision losses to Jermain Taylor, was an underdog coming in, with many of the experts predicting a Tarver win, citing that Hopkins looked lethargic in his last several bouts. The Hopkins that stepped into the ring against Tarver was a muscular 174 and he looked rejuvenated, outboxing and outfighting Tarver throughout, scoring a flash knockdown, and dealing out punishment over the last three rounds, forcing Tarver to hold on to the final bell, only to see Hopkins seize his title with a one-sided decision.

Calzaghe: * Jeff Lacy (3/4/06) – Lacy was a super middleweight titlist with an Olympic pedigree and devastating punching power. Many expected him to not only defeat Calzaghe in his backyard, but to win by stoppage. Calzaghe was dominant throughout the bout, battering Lacy and knocking him down in the 12th round before winning a dominant decision

* Mikkel Kessler (11/3/07) – Coming into this bout, Kessler, a Dane known as “The Viking Warrior” was sporting an undefeated record and was known for wearing opponents down with a punishing attack. The first half of the bout featured some good two-way action but as the fight progressed, it was Calzaghe who shifted his attack in overdrive and dominated down the stretch winning by unanimous decision.

* Charles Brewer (4/20/02) – Hopkins won’t be the first Philadelphia fighter that Calzaghe has encountered. Former super middleweight titlist Charles Brewer was on the downside of his career but he was still a formidable adversary with knockout power in both hands. Calzaghe took the fight to him and battered him throughout, blistering Brewer with combinations and causing him to back up. In the end, Calzaghe walked away with a unanimous decision.

* Chris Eubank (10/11/97) – Calzaghe was a young 25 year old fighter with only 22 bouts on his resume when he stepped in with Eubank, a British legend who was victorious in 45 of his 47 bouts going in. If Calzaghe was intimidated, he didn’t show it as he outhustled Eubank, winning 9 of the 12 rounds on his way to a unanimous decision victory?

QUESTIONS

Hopkins: * Despite his tough talk, is he still as motivated as he was coming up as an anti-establishment fighter with a king-sized chip on his shoulder?

* How will he counter Calzaghe’s punch output of 75-80 punches per round?

* Can his legs and stamina hold up if Calzaghe sets a brisk pace?

* Will he be able to reach into that well one more time for another great performance?

Calzaghe: * Will Calzaghe be able to handle Hopkins crafty style and frequent dirty tactics?

* How will his first bout in the United State affect his psyche?

* Does he have the power to backup and discourage the iron-jawed Hopkins?

* Will his wide-open offense attack leave him vulnerable to a master counterpuncher like Hopkins?

PENECALE PREDICTION

In this fight, it will be determined by who is able to impose their style. A fight with two-way action and a lot of punches favors the younger and more active Calzaghe. A fight with less punching and more rough-house tactics favors the stronger Hopkins.

I can easily envision scenarios with both boxers winning. I see the bout going the distance. There are two prevailing factors. Hopkins over the last several years, with the exception of the Tarver fight, has formed a bad habit of laying back early and allowing opponents to control the pace and tempo and giving away the early rounds. Calzaghe has said he plans to lessen his punch output to neutralize the opportunity for Hopkins to find his range with counter punches. If he does, he plays right into Hopkins ploy and anything less than 50 punches per round is a fatal mistake.

The early rounds will feature Calzaghe pressing the action and Hopkins giving angles and keeping him off balance. Calzaghe will average 60-70 punches per round over the first three rounds while Hopkins will only throw 15-20 over those rounds. Even though, they will both land about the same amount, Calzaghe will sweep the first three rounds on the scorecards.

Hopkins will pick up his pace in the 4th round, find a home for his straight right and snapping Calzaghe’s head back on several occasion. Each time he lands a significant punch, Hopkins will move in and smother Calzaghe, tying him up with one arm and pounding him to the ribs with the other, trying to wear him down with the tactics that were so effective against Winky Wright. Hopkins will win the 4 th round with Harold Lederman giving one of his famous calls “I gotta give that round to Hopkins. He moved inside and caused more damage. After four rounds, 39-37 Calzaghe.”

Calzaghe will significantly increase his offense in the 5th round. Overall, he will outwork Hopkins throughout the round, but there will be times that he lunges coming in and Hopkins will make him pay with counter right hands and uppercuts.

The 6th round will start the pivotal stretch of the fight. Hopkins will be down four rounds to one but he will start to swing the momentum in his favor. He will be in a rhythm where he is controlling the pace and attacking with offensive bursts. For the first time, Calzaghe will be backing on his heels, with his face showing some of the effects of the right hands he’s absorbed. But not to be deterred, Calzaghe will keep his pace and fire volleys of punches whenever Hopkins takes a lull in the action.

Over the final four rounds, it will be a back-and-forth affair. Calzaghe will continue to throw more punches but Hopkins will pick his shots and land the cleaner hard punches. At the final bell, both fighters will raise their hands in triumph. Calzaghe’s face will show the damage and by virtue of appearance, it will seem to favor Hopkins. It will be a determination of if the judges favored the higher punch output of Calzaghe or the harder counter punches of Hopkins.

One judge will favor the output, awarding Calzaghe the victory by the score of 116-112. The second judge will favor the more effective punches from Hopkins, giving him the nod by the score of 115-113. As it is announced, it will tally the score of 114-114. The bout will end in a draw with both fighters claiming victory at the conclusion.