UFC 84 Preview & Picks

Posted on | May 19, 2008 | 1 Comment

By Matthew Brothers

“Sean Sherk, you’re dead!” This is the message that B.J. Penn delivered to the fans in England at UFC 80 after dismantling Joe Stevenson and winning the vacated UFC lightweight championship. That is the very title that the UFC stripped from Sherk just months earlier when Sherk tested positive for steroids after his successful title defense against Hermes Franca in July of ’07. Although the California State Athletic Commission suspended him for a year and then later reduced it to 6 months after an appeal by Sherk, he still maintains his innocence and will be looking for redemption on May 24 in Las Vegas when he battles Penn. The 11-fight card the UFC presents to us next Saturday offers some other great fights as well. We can look forward to the debut of some new UFC talent and witness history as Tito Ortiz fights in what will most likely be his last bout in the UFC.

The action begins with undefeated wrestler Shane Carwin (8-0) making his UFC debut against American Kickboxing Academy’s Christian Wellisch (8-3). Carwin comes into this fight as the next highly touted addition to the UFC’s sorely lacking heavyweight division. Carwin has finished all of his opponents in the first round, his longest fight being 2:11 and the total of his 8 bouts being 7:20. Simply put, it has taken him under a round and a half to defeat eight men. Wellisch will have some momentum as he is looking to add to his current win streak inside the octagon. Both men have shown KO power as well as the ability to submit their opponents. I predict Carwin’s ground’n’pound will be too much for Wellisch and I see him winning by T/KO in the 1st round.

Liverpool’s Jason Tan (5-2) makes his return to the UFC when he takes on Korea’s Dong Hyun Kim (9-1-1) in the 2nd fight of the night. Kim is a judo expert who actually majors in the art at Yong-In University at home in Korea. He is long, lean and tall for a welterweight. He possesses great punching skills and has won his last five fights via TKO. Tan will have the slight advantage of having already fought in the UFC once and will hopefully have shaken the octagon jitters that plagued him against Marcus Davis last June when he was knocked out in the 1st round. On top of his five-inch height advantage, Kim has experience on his side and I foresee him winning the fight in the 2nd round via T/KO.

John “War Machine” Koppenhaver (5-1) comes off an impressive come-from-behind victory over fellow “TUF 6” cast member Jared Rollins to take on Japan’s Yoshiyuki Yoshida (9-2). Both men are at their best when they’re on their feet so expect a stand-up war. Koppenhaver displayed a ton of heart and an iron chin in his win against Rollins, and he’s proven that he’s not easy to finish. Yoshida is on an eight-fight winning streak, finishing six of those opponents by TKO, and he typically doesn’t let the fight go to a 2nd round. I admire Koppenhaver for his heart, but I think Yoshida will get the better of him via unanimous decision.

On just 27 days of rest since he defeated Sam Stout, Rich Clementi (31-12-1) gets right back in the mix when he takes on submission specialist Terry Etim (10-1). Etim will most likely be looking to take the fight to the ground and work his submission game against the experienced Clementi. Not being a stranger to the ground game himself, Clementi will pose a serious challenge to the younger Etim. With both fighters being such dangerous grapplers, this will come down to who has the better stand-up and I would give that edge to Clementi. I think this is a great match-up and could see the fight going either way. I’ll officially predict Clementi via submission in the 3rd round.

The much-hyped Rameau Sokoudjou (4-2) makes his sophomore appearance in the octagon against fellow UFC sophomore and Ryoto Machida victim, Kazuhiro Nakamura (11-7). With the mass amount of UFC talent cuts lately, these men both need a win to secure a future with the organization. Sokoudjou impressed everyone with his fast and devastating victories over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona in Pride, but was brought back to reality when he was submitted by Machida back in December. To Nakamura’s credit, he was at least able to take the fight to a decision when he faced Machida, although he lost unanimously. I haven’t given up on Sokoudjou yet and I see him winning this fight via T/KO in the 2nd round.

Ivan Salaverry (12-6) is making his return to MMA after a year on the sidelines to fight another fighter debuting at UFC 84, Brazilian Top Team’s Rousimar Palhares (7-1). Salaverry has gone 4-4 in his last 8 fights, which span all the way back to his September ’02 decision loss to Matt Lindland. On the other side of the coin, Palhares career started just barely over two years ago, and will have youth as well as momentum on his side. On the feet, I have to give the edge to Salaverry because he has a proven ability to use his knees as well as his punching power to finish fights. Although Salaverry has a well rounded game, he will be in Palhares’ world should this fight go to the ground. I’ve seen very little of Palhares, but what I have seen leads me to believe he will be the first man to make Salaverry tap. I’m calling Palhares by submission in the 2nd.

The televised portion of the card will begin with Antonio Mendes (14-2) facing trial by fire as he faces the very intense, very dangerous Thiago Silva (12-0). Matchmaker Joe Silva must really see something in Mendes to start him off with such a stiff test against the undefeated Silva. Both of these guys like to fight on their feet and have the majority of their wins by TKO. They’re both capable of submissions as well, so it’s going to be very interesting to see what game plans these guys come in with. I’m really excited about this fight and see a lot of potential for war. As for a pick on this fight, I have to go with instinct and say Silva by T/KO in the 1st round.

Tito Ortiz (15-5-1) is a former UFC champion, one of the pioneers of ground’n’pound, and an MMA legend. He is the leader of Team Punishment and has built an empire based on ability, charisma, intensity, and being arguably the most outrageous personality the sport has ever known. UFC 84 marks what will most likely be the end of an era, when Ortiz fights his last match in the UFC octagon. Dana White and Tito have never hidden their disdain for each other, and White tries to send Tito packing with a loss, as he pits him against undefeated Ryoto “The Dragon” Machida (12-0). Machida is said to be the future of the 205lb. division, and with wins over B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin, and most recently Sokoudjou, it’s hard to dispute that. Machida being a very calculating and cerebral fighter will be fighting his polar opposite in the raw and intense Ortiz. It’s no secret that Tito’s typical game plan is to use his wrestling skills to get the takedown, and once on top reign down elbows and punches to finish his opponent. Ryoto on the other hand, is much like Randy Couture in that he uses intelligence and strategy to dissect his opponent and exploit weaknesses. Machida has never fought a wrestler as good as Tito so I am excited to see what his game plan will be. I cannot honestly say which fighter has the advantage on the ground or on the feet. Both men have had their share of fights go to the score cards and I believe this fight will be no different. My heart and my brain are battling each other trying to pick a winner. Ultimately, my brain wins and Machida will be the victor of this fight by unanimous decision. The real question is, will the UFC brass give Tito a chance to say goodbye, or will they immediately cut to a UFC 85 promo? That Hughes-Alves fight looks great doesn’t it?

The final UFC debut of the night belongs to Croatian Goran Reljic (7-0) as he takes on fellow light heavyweight Wilson Gouviea (10-4) of American Top Team. We last saw Gouveia at UFC 80 as he weathered the storm that is Jason Lambert and when it seemed he was about to be finished, he dropped Lambert with a devastating left-hand that immediately ended the fight. Reljic enters the octagon as a jiu-jitsu expert with a penchant for taking his opponents arm home with him after the fight. I can only imagine that Reljic will look for the takedown and work his submission game. Gouveia has proven to be better-rounded and will not be easy to submit by any means, he is a fierce competitor and has oodles of heart and a chin that takes a licking and keeps on ticking. I’m picking Gouveia by T/KO in the 2nd round but I’m looking forward to seeing how Reljic can perform in the big show and I invite him to prove me wrong.

Ever hear of MMA math? A good example of it is if Keith Jardine (13-3-1) beat Chuck Liddell and Chuck Liddell beat Wanderlei Silva (31-8-1) so Jardine has to be able to beat Silva right? Wrong. I am a huge Keith Jardine fan which makes me a little biased, but I think that Wanderlei is a terrible style match-up for him and the proof will be in the pudding when Silva wins by T/KO in the 3rd. When Liddell was defeated by Jardine, it was because Chuck’s counter-punching style was muted by Jardine’s get in and get out strategy. It worked for Jardine in that fight and he has the check in his win column to prove it. Silva, however, is not a counter puncher. He is a dangerously crisp striker who can take a punch and keep moving forward. I know how intelligent Greg Jackson (Jardine’s trainer) is and how he likes to take a holistic and strategic approach to the fight game, so maybe Jardine will surprise us all and go for the takedown to avoid Silva’s hands? Who knows? The only sure thing about this fight is if Jardine wins, he has to be in line for a title shot at 205. Should Jardine and Machida both win, I’d love to see a fight between them to establish a #1 contender.

B.J. Penn (12-4-1) has been dubbed “The Prodigy” for a reason. He can strike with accuracy and speed, he can wrestle, and he has some crazy flexibility with submissions for days. Alternately, Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk (32-2-1) and his “caveman training” regimen, make him one of the most well conditioned athletes in the world, and he’s going to be relying on just that if he hopes to beat Penn on the 24th. It’s no secret that Penn’s weakness in the past has been his gas tank. He hit empty against Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre resulting in his defeat both times. I see Penn having every advantage in this fight short of the aforementioned stamina issues, and although he has great wrestling skills, Sherk is one of the game’s best in that department. Sherk will not want to stand with B.J. and he will most certainly be looking to take the top position and work his grinding ground game and punish Penn. That is much easier said than done however, and even if he should manage a takedown on Penn, keeping him down is another story. I definitely favor Penn to win this fight by submission, a feat never accomplished against Sherk, and I see it happening in the 3rd round. Sherk has been heavily criticized in the past for his lack of excitement and his “lay and pray” ground game. Say what you want about Sherk, he boasts an incredible record and his only losses come from Hughes and St. Pierre who are welterweight elites. This bout will be emotionally charged for both men as Sherk looks to prove he’s the real champ at 155, and the belt was his all along, whereas Penn will look to solidify his place in MMA history and take one step closer to becoming the best of all time, because “that’s not too much to ask is it?”

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