Tony Penecale’s Mayweather vs. Ortiz **In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

Posted on | September 15, 2011 | No Comments

CLICK HERE FOR AN INSIDE LOOK AT FLOYD MAYWEATHER, JUNIOR’S SEPT. 6, 2011 OPEN WORKOUT

By: Tony Penecale

Floyd “Money” Mayweather is back in the boxing ring for the first time in 16 months. In the opposite corner will be a quick-handed, power-punching southpaw of foreign descent. But don’t let “Vicious” Victor Ortiz hear that you were hoping that opponent would be Manny Pacquiao. This is his fight, and he is determined to make a statement. Mayweather is back to reclaim a spot he doesn’t believe he ever relinquished as the best boxer alive today. Ortiz restored his reputation–damaged in a perceived “No Mas” against Marcos Maidana–by getting off the canvas to hand highly-regarded Andre Berto his first loss. With only two fights in the last 42 months, will we be seeing The Old Floyd Mayweather? Or will we just simply be seeing An Old Floyd Mayweather as Father Time is an opponent that eventually catches up to all. Will Father Time be disguised as Victor Ortiz? Mayweather wants to keep his perfect record intact and solidify his greatness! Ortiz wants to shock the world and prove he can be the new superstar of boxing. On September 17, we will see just who’s Star Power will shine brighter!

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Mayweather: Age: 34 years old
Record: 41-0 (25 Knockouts)
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 146 * * Weight for last bout (5-1-10)
Reach: 72”

Ortiz: Age: 24 years old
Record: 29-2-2 (22 Knockouts)
Height: 5’9”
Weight: 146 * * Weight for last bout (4-16-11)
Reach: 70”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Mayweather:
1996 Olympic Bronze Medalist
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’98-’02)
WBC Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
Ring Magazine Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’06)
IBF Welterweight Champion (’06)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’07)
Ring Magazine Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #1 Boxer (’05-‘07)

Ortiz:
WBC Welterweight Champion (’11-‘Pres)

STYLE

Mayweather:
A pure boxer with great speed who does everything well with an arsenal that includes a snapping jab, accurate right hand, and left hook that can be doubled and tripled with tremendous effect. Uses feint moves to freeze opponents and open punching lanes. Tucks his chin well behind his shoulder to roll with punches. Even on the ropes, he is a difficult target to land a solid punch on. He doesn’t have great punching power. Most of his stoppage victories come from outpunching and outclassing his opponents but rarely scoring clean knockouts.

Ortiz:
A straight-forward southpaw who attacks relentlessly and creates high-action fights. Ortiz has deceptively quick hands and punching power in both. Typically Ortiz puts pressure on his opponent during the opening rounds, but he will sometimes abandon his jab in favor of attacking with straight lefts, right hooks, and uppercuts. He also hits the body well. His best defense is a good offense, but he can be hit with straight counters down the middle. He sometimes drops his hands and leaves his chin open.

STRENGTHS

Mayweather:
* Experience – Boxing is in Mayweather’s blood and has been a part of his life since his childhood. He completed an extensive amateur career by winning the bronze medal in the ’96 Olympic Games. He’s competed successfully on a championship level for the past 13 years, facing and defeating all styles.

* Speed – Speed Kills. Mayweather has incredible hand and foot speed, which allows him to move inside, unload his offense, and dart out of range before his opponent can set himself.

* Ring Generalship – Mayweather knows every inch of the ring and how to control a fight. He knows when to attack, when to box, when to turn up the heat, and when to coast. Mayweather owns the ring when he’s in there. Even when stunned in the Mosley fight, he was able to quickly settle down and quell the threat.

Ortiz:
* Youth – Ortiz is a youthful and energetic 24 year old, still growing and improving. He is entering his physical prime and will be the youngest opponent Mayweather has faced since Henry Bruseles in 2005.

* Power – While Ortiz possesses quickness in both hands, his calling card is his punching power. He digs to the body and throws a relentless assortment of power punches with both hands, capable of knocking out any opponent.

* Desire – After a potentially career-deflating loss to Marcos Maidana, Oritz has returned with a vengeance, highlighted with his win over Berto. He now has the desire to prove that he is not merely a set-up comeback opponent for Mayweather.

WEAKNESSES

Mayweather:
* Inactivity – Since retiring in 2007, Mayweather returned twice, posting decision wins over Juan Manuel Marquez and Shane Mosley. He’s averaged 1 fight every 21 months, and the buildup of rust could be a factor as he gets older.

* Distractions – There is always the potential that Mayweather could be looking toward a potential superfight with Manny Pacquiao and not focusing on Victor Ortiz. There is the potential distraction of Mayweather’s looming legal issues and family friction that seems to follow him inside and outside of the ring.

* Punching Power – Most of Mayweather’s stoppage wins have come from an accumulation of punches. The usual result is the referee or opposing corner stopping the bout to prevent further punishment. It is rare to see Mayweather finish a bout with one punch, a trend that dates back to his days as a 130 lb boxer.

Ortiz:
* Easy to Hit – Ortiz is a straight forward and offensive fighter. While exciting, he is a defensive liability and is especially susceptible to straight right hands.

* Chin – Along with a porous defense, Ortiz has a chin that won’t confuse anybody with Jake Lamotta’s. Ortiz has been knocked down on several occasions and severely staggered on others.

* Soft Tissue – Ortiz has tender skin, evidenced by the cuts and swelling he’s suffered in past fights around both eyes, which seriously handicapped him and led to his defeat against Maidana.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Mayweather:
(5/1/10) – Mayweather scored a unanimous decision over former world champion Shane Mosley. After being badly stunned in the 2nd round, Mayweather rebounded and took control of the contest, consistently beating Mosley to the punch and dominating him over the final 10 rounds.

Ortiz:
(4/16/11) – Ortiz was an underdog going in against welterweight titlist Andre Berto. But Ortiz turned in an impressive performance, attacking Berto from the start, while trading two knockdowns apiece. It was Ortiz who was the stronger fighter down the stretch, winning his first world title with a unanimous decision.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Mayweather:
* Diego Corrales (1/20/01) – Experts were torn on who to pick in this one with many leaning towards Corrales to win by KO. Mayweather never let him in the bout, knocking him down five times before the ref stopped the fight in the 10th round.

* Arturo Gatti (6/25/05) – Although Mayweather was a solid betting favorite, many expected Gatti to make things rough for Mayweather. It never happened as Mayweather floored Gatti in the 1st round and dealt out a severe beating before Gatti’s corner stopped the bout after six one-sided rounds.

* Ricky Hatton (12/08/07) – Hatton was undefeated coming into the bout and set a gameplan of constant pressure to wear out Mayweather. After a few uncomfortable rounds, Mayweather was able to find his range and take over, flooring Hatton twice in the 10th round and forcing a stoppage.

Ortiz:
* Andre Berto (4-16-11) – Ortiz fought with a chip on his shoulder, attacking the favored Berto early and assaulting him with a whirlwind of punches. After flooring Berto, Ortiz found himself on the canvas twice, the second time seriously hurt. He rebounded like a champion, surviving the firestorm and depositing Berto back on the canvas, pulling away down the stretch for the win.

* Vivian Harris (9-18-10) – In a battle of warriors with the “Vicious” moniker, Ortiz impressively destroyed the faded Harris in three rounds. Ortiz took command in the 2nd round, flooring Harris three times, before dropping him for the full count with a body shot in the 3rd.

* Jeffrey Resto (12/6/08) – Ortiz decimated one-time prospect Resto with a knockout in the 2nd round. Ortiz attacked his tall, lanky opponent and found a home early for his straight left hand, which sent Resto to the canvas three times before the referee called the stoppage.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Mayweather:
* Neutralize Ortiz’s aggressiveness with footwork and counter right hands down the middle.

* Keep the action in the center of the ring and stay off the ropes.

* Control the tempo and don’t get goaded into a slugfest.

Ortiz:
* Don’t wait for the perfect punch. Land any punch possible on any part of the torso.

* Cut the ring off and force Mayweather to fight in confined spaces.

* Use a sustained body attack to slow Mayweather down.

QUESTIONS

Mayweather:
* Has Mayweather been exposed as having a vulnerable chin?

* Is Mayweather looking past Ortiz at a potential mega fight with Manny Pacquiao?

* Will the long layoff dull Mayweather’s vaunted razor-sharp reflexes?

Ortiz:
* How will Ortiz react in the biggest moment of his career?

* Will Ortiz become discouraged if Mayweather starts to dominate?

* Can Ortiz’s skin and chin hold up to Mayweather’s lightning counters?

PENECALE PREDICTION

Oritz will try to emulate the strategy Ricky Hatton used early to make Mayweather uncomfortable, utilizing pressure and physicality. Ortiz has the advantage of being bigger and stronger than Hatton and is also a southpaw.

Mayweather will use footwork and movement to keep on the outside and away from the ropes where he would be most in danger. Mayweather will show some rust early, and Ortiz will have some success fighting in close.

As the fight enters the 3rd round, Ortiz will continue to pressure Mayweather and force him to fight pack in pockets. A straight left-right hook combo from Ortiz will catch and momentarily stun Mayweather and cause his legs to buckle. Ortiz will be invigorated by the moment and rush in with abandon, sensing the opportunity to cash in on the biggest moment of his career. But his exuberance will cost him as his wide open attack leaves him open to a counter right hand from Mayweather that will send Ortiz to the seat of his trunks.

Ortiz will be stunned and backing away on shaky legs with Mayweather in pursuit, looking to land more straight rights. With his back to the ropes, Oritz will fire back wildly and keep Mayweather at bay.

The fight will start to form a pattern in the middle rounds. Ortiz will continue on the attack, as that is his nature, but Mayweather’s better boxing and defensive skills will allow him to grab control and sharp shoot Ortiz from the outside, landing right hands at will.

With Mayweather in control by the 7th round, the damage to Ortiz’s face will become more severe, with a small cut by his right eye and severe swelling and discoloration around his left, complements of the onslaught of right hands. A combination of punches in the 8th round will badly hurt Ortiz and he will try to clinch. A short right from Mayweather flush on the chin will send him to his knees, a look of defeat on his face as he slowly gets to his feet as the bell rings.

The minute respite will not be sufficient as Ortiz will enter the 9th round in strictly survival mode, trying to move away and compose himself. The referee will watch Ortiz closely and after Mayweather catches up to him and floors him again with a three-punch combination in the corner, the bout will be stopped.

The winner by TKO at 45 seconds of the 9th round will be FLOYD “MONEY” MAYWEATHER, JR.!!!

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