COTTO VS. JUDAH PREVIEW
Posted on | June 5, 2007 | 2 Comments
COTTO VS. JUDAH
** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **
By Tony Penecale
For the 3rd consecutive year, Puerto Rican native Miguel Cotto will be looking to usher in the annual New York City Puerto Rican Day parade in style when he takes on Brooklyn’s Zab Judah at the famed Madison Square Garden. Cotto has been successful the last two years, hammering former Olympic conqueror Mohamad Abdulaev into a 9th-round defeat in 2005 and defeating Paulie Malignaggi by decision in 2006. In Judah, he faces his most challenging test, a quick and sharp, albeit inconsistent, boxer, with power in both hands, who is hungry to rebound a faltering career.
AGE, RECORD, AND STATS
Cotto : Age: 26 years old
Record: 29-0 (24 Knockouts)
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 147 ** Weight for last bout (3-3-07)
Reach: 67”
Judah: Age: 29 years old
Record: 34-4 (24 Knockouts)
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 147 * * Weight for last bout (4-8-07)
Reach: 72”
RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Cotto: WBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’04-‘06)
WBA Welterweight Champion (’06-Pres)
Judah: IBF Junior Welterweight Champion (’00-‘01)
WBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’03)
Ring Magazine Welterweight Champion (’05-‘06)
STYLE
Cotto: An aggressive and physical boxer who fights from the orthodox stance, Cotto comes straight ahead, and wears opponents down with a punishing body attack. Cotto favors hooks and uppercuts to straight punches and turns every bout into a war of attrition. Most of his stoppage victories have come late, after his opponent has been worn down. Will often leave himself open to counters when trying to unleash his offense.
Judah: An exceptionally fast boxer who boxes out of the southpaw stance, Judah is more of a sharpshooter, landing quick and slashing punches, primarily the straight left, from the outside. Due to his slick style, he was formerly billed as “Pernell Whitaker with a punch”.
STRENGTHS
Cotto: * Body Attack – Cotto is quite possibly the best body puncher in the sport today. He wings hard hooks on the inside that make contact with whatever is available: ribs, shoulders, torso, chest, and arms, with punishing results. He scored a knockdown over Gianluca Branco with a left hook to the shoulder.
* Strength – Cotto is a strong and physical fighter. While he fights at welterweight, he has the physical stature and physicality of a super middleweight, which he uses to muscle and wear down opponents.
* Determination – Cotto carries a lot of pride when he steps into the ring, which will be intensified fighting in front of a partisan crowd.
Judah: * Speed – Judah carries Mayweather-esque speed, even beating Pretty Boy Floyd to the punch in the first few rounds of their April ’06 encounter. Against the slower Cotto, Judah’s speed will be a major advantage.
* Better Competition – Judah since early in his career has fought an impressive number of quality fighters including victories over Micky Ward, Daryl Tyson, Junior Witter, Terron Millet, Rafael Pineda, and Cory Spinks.
* Desperation – Judah will be in his second fight after serving a one-year suspension for his role in the melee with Roger Mayweather last year in Las Vegas (his first fight was one-round no contest when his opponent suffered a cut from an accidental headbutt). Judah is winless in his last three outings and knows that if he is unsuccessful, he time as a serious contender and moneymaker will most likely be over.
WEAKNESSES
Cotto: * Defense – Cotto’s best defense is a good offense and he often neglects the defensive part of his game. Cotto can be hit and that can be dangerous against a sharp puncher like Judah.
* Chin – Combined with an offense that leaves him prone to counter punches, Cotto’s shaky chin can be a recipe for disaster. Cotto was wobbled against the relatively moderate punching Demarcus Corley, and was down several times and in serious trouble against Ricardo Torres.
* Fouls – Many times when Cotto is fighting on the inside, he has the tendency to land blows on the belt-line and below and has been penalized in the past.
Judah: * Concentration – Judah sometimes like to bring more “Bling” than bang. He gets too preoccupied with showboating and doesn’t always focus on the task at hand.
* Chin – Judah has been knocked down several times in his career, and knocked out by a single Kostya Tszyu right hand. He even suffered a knockdown against the light-punching Cory Spinks.
* Immaturity – When things are not going Judah’s way, he tends to unravel. Some of his most infamous meltdowns include attacking a referee and throwing a ring stool at him, hitting Carlos Baldomir with a low blow during the pre-fight instructions, and throwing a punch at Roger Mayweather, while he was being restrained during that ugly brawl.
3 BEST PERFORMANCES
Cotto: * Mohamad Abdulaev (6/11/05) – Systematically broke down Abdulaev over 9 rounds, swelling his eye completely shut, and forcing him to surrender.
* Ricardo Torres (9/24/05) – Little was known about the Columbian coming into the bout except for his sparkling 28-0 (26) record. Both boxers traded knockdowns and took turns having the other in serious trouble. Eventually, it was Cotto’s punishing body attack that sapped Torres’ strength and set him up for the stoppage.
* Paulie Malignaggi (6/10/06) – Cotto was favored to beat this quick and undefeated Brooklyn boxer. After dropping Malignaggi early, Cotto had to endure some spurts where the challenger employed an effective stick & move strategy. Cotto took control over the final third of the bout and earned an impressive decision over his battered and bloody opponent.
Judah: * Cory Spinks (2/5/05) – Judah was out to avenge a decision loss to Spinks the previous year where he had Spinks out on his feet at the final bell. Judah got to Spinks earlier this time, dropping him and finishing him off in the 9th round, claiming the unified welterweight title in the process.
* Junior Witter (6/24/00) – While it didn’t seem significant at the time, Judah’s unanimous decision over the undefeated Witter has become more significant as Witter has won 20 straight bouts including decisions over Lovemore N’dou and Demarcus Corley.
* Jaime Rangel (12/13/03) – While he was not expected to upset Judah, Rangel was expected to give him some uncomfortable moments. Judah never let him in the bout blasting him out with a single left hand in the 1st round.
QUESTIONS
Cotto: * Will Cotto be overzealous in trying to put on an impressive show and run himself into Judah’s sharp counter punches?
* Will Cotto be able to cope with Judah’s tremendous speed and boxing ability?
* Is the rapidly-growing Cotto already struggling to make 147 and weakening himself in the process?
Judah: * Judah has only boxed one round in the last 15 months. Is he adequately prepared to face a physical boxer in his prime?
* If things start to go in Cotto’s favor, will Judah experience one of his classic meltdowns?
* Can Judah keep focused on his gameplan without getting sidetracked with showboating?
PENECALE PREDICTION
This expects to be exciting from the outset. Judah has trash-talked during press conferences and boldly predicted that he will knock Cotto out and go celebrate at the Puerto Rican Day parade. Cotto is going to come out early and try to back Judah up and unveil his potent body attack. Judah will look to give angles and not stand in front of his stronger opponent.
Things should really start to heat up around the 3rd round, where Judah will probably be a bit more flatfooted and try to counter Cotto’s rushes with straight lefts. Cotto will take the opportunity to land punches anywhere he can on Judah’s torso. It is conceivable with their power and suspect chins, that both combatants could be staggered or touch the canvas in the first half of the bout.
Cotto will start to take over around the 7th or 8th round and have Judah back on his heels. This is where the bout could get ugly as Judah has the tendency to be a front runner and does not respond well when pressed and could resort to fouling, possibly with low blows. Cotto is no stranger to bending the rules and would likely respond in kind, making it difficult for the referee.
Cotto will keep up the attack and the signs will show on Judah. His legs will be all but gone by the 10th round. It will be Cotto’s time to close the show and he will, battering Judah to the canvas with an assault against the ropes. Judah will rise and try to survive by any means necessary. But against the stronger Cotto, he won’t be able to do so and will find himself on the canvas again, which will prompt a stoppage from Judah’s trainer/father Yoel.