TONY PENECALE’S COTTO VS. MARGARITO PREVIEW AND PREDICTION

Posted on | July 24, 2008 | No Comments

Preview and prediction

MIGUEL COTTO vS Antonio Margarito

By Tony Penecale

For years, there has been a great rivalry between Puerto Rican and Mexican Fighters. From Wilfredo Gomez and Carlos Zarate to Julio Cesar Chavez and Edwin Rosario, the pride of those respective countries has been represented in some classic wars. This all leads to the current welterweight division, the deepest in boxing, where a number of quality fighters are looking to put their stamp as #1. At the top of the food chain is Miguel Cotto, a vicious bodypuncher from Puerto Rico, undefeated in 32 fights, and Antonio Margarito, an aggressive power puncher from Mexico, highly respected and very dangerous. Both are coming off destructive knockout victories and heading into this showdown, not only are they fighting for welterweight supremacy but carrying the pride of their countries into this showdown. The great Puerto Rican-Mexican rivalry continues!

STATISTICS

Cotto:
Age – 27 years old
Height – 5’7”
Weight – 146 lbs (last bout on 4/12/08)
Reach – 67”
Record – 32-0 (26)

Margarito:
Age – 30 years old
Height – 5’11”
Weight – 146 lbs
Reach – 73”
Record – 36-5 (26)

STYLE

Cotto:
An aggressive and physical boxer who fights from the orthodox stance, Cotto comes straight ahead, and wears opponents down with a punishing body attack. Cotto favors hooks and uppercuts to straight punches and turns every bout into a war of attrition. Doesn’t have lights-out punching power but is very punishing in the mold of Rocky Marciano, landing strength-sapping bombs to the head and torso. Most of his stoppage victories have come late, after his opponent has been worn down. Will often leave himself open to counters when trying to unleash his offense.

Margarito:
A tall, lanky fighter with long arms and power in both hands, Margarito fights aggressively, usually starting slow and finding the range for his straight right hand and left hook, thrown effectively to the body and head. Not afraid to take a punch, Margarito will stand directly in front of his opponents, using his superior strength to put them on the defensive. Once the action starts heating up, he fights like his moniker of “The Tijuana Tornado”.

STRENGTHS

Cotto:
1) Body Attack – Cotto is quite possibly the best body puncher in the sport today. He wings hard hooks on the inside that make contact with whatever is available: ribs, shoulders, torso, chest, and arms, with punishing results. He scored a knockdown over Gianluca Branco with a left hook to the shoulder.
2) Strength – Cotto is a strong and physical fighter. While he fights at welterweight, he has the physical stature and physicality of a super middleweight, which he uses to muscle and wear down opponents.
3) Heart – Cotto carries a lot of pride when he steps into the ring. He has been wobbled on several occasions and has even touched the canvas a few times, but has always risen and fought back with fury.

Margarito:
1) Power – Margarito possesses punishing power in both hands which includes an arsenal of right hands, left hooks, and uppercuts. Several respected fighters were blown away under Margarito’s powerful attack.
2) Chin – In bouts against respected punchers like Kermit Cintron, Paul Williams, and Joshua Clottey, Margarito has stood toe-to-toe and taken their best offerings without blinking.
3) Killer Instinct – Once an opponent is hurt, Margarito swarms power punches like a shark swarms to blood, attacking with an assortment of punches until his adversary is no longer standing.

WEAKNESSES

Cotto:
1) Defense – Cotto’s best defense is a good offense and he often neglects the defensive part of his game. Cotto can be hit and that can be dangerous against a sharp puncher.
2) Vulnerable Chin – Combined with an offense that leaves him prone to counter punches, Cotto’s shaky chin can be a recipe for disaster. Cotto was wobbled against moderate punchers Demarcus Corley and Zab Judah, and was down several times and in serious trouble against Ricardo Torres.

Margarito:
1) Slow – Margarito is very deliberate in his style, plodding forward and firing long range punches. Opponents have found pockets of success in boxing and moving on angles, landing punches before Margarito can get set.
2) Easy to Hit – Margarito lost to Paul Williams and was trailing early to Joshua Clottey because he was leaving himself open to punches over the top of his long arms. He is very willing to take punches to land his own.

BEST PERFORMANCES

Cotto:
1) Alfonso Gomez (4/12/08) – In what turned out to be a mismatch, Cotto relentlessly pummeled the former “Contender” alum over five rounds. Cotto boxed early and kept Gomez off balance with his underrated jab, which created openings for his left hook and right hand. Cotto knocked Gomez to the canvas in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and had him a bloody and swollen mess. Cotto put an exclamation point on his performance, again knocking Gomez down in the 5th round and forcing the Gomez’s corner to surrender at the end of the round.
2) Zab Judah (6-9-07) – Had to endure some difficult moments early, getting rocked and suffering a cut under his lip. But Cotto kept pressing Judah, sapping his strength with a variety of thudding body shots. With Judah both physically and mentally beaten, Cotto finished him off dropping him in the 9th before finally stopping him in the 11th round.
3) Mohamad Abdulaev (6-11-05) – Systematically broke down Abdulaev over nine rounds, swelling his eye completely shut, and forcing him to surrender. An impressive performance against the highly-respected 2000 Olympic Gold Medalist.

Margarito:
1) Kermit Cintron (4-12-08) – This was a rematch to Margarito’s dominant victory over Cintron three years prior. Many thought the roles would be reversed as Cintron had improved tremendously under the tutelage of Emmanuel Steward. None of that mattered in the ring as Margarito relentlessly hammered Cintron with right hands, finally deflating him for the count with a vicious body shot in the 6th round.
2) Golden Johnson (11-10-07) – Coming off a decision loss to Paul Williams, it was wondered if Margarito was on the downslide. Margarito promised to start faster and he made good on that statement, attacking Johnson early and driving him to the canvas three times for a 1st round stoppage vicory.
3) Antonio Diaz (3-16-02) – Diaz was a respected fighter had had been unsuccessful in a challenge for Shane Mosley’s welterweight title. Against Margarito, he was dissected, finally crumbling under an offensive outburst in the 10th round, forcing his corner to throw in the towel of surrender.

QUESTIONS

Cotto:
1) Will Cotto leave himself open trying to land his body punches?
2) How will Cotto handle Margarito’s power punches?
3) Will Cotto become discouraged if Margarito walks through his best punches?

Margarito:
1) Will Margarito’s aggressive play to Cotto’s advantage?
2) Can Margarito’s lean frame handle Cotto’s relentless body attack?
3) Is Margarito versatile enough to box with Cotto?

THE PREDICTION

This fight is a definite throwback. It is easy to envision this fight on a grainy black and white TV with Don Dunphy covering the broadcast. The crowd at the MGM Grand will be split down the middle and raucous.

At the opening bell, Cotto will use his vastly improved boxing skills, moving laterally and jabbing from various angles, keeping Margarito off balance and unable to set his feet. About midway through the round, Cotto will throw his first serious body punches, jabbing to the head and following it with rights and lefts to Margarito’s rib cage, which the taller fighter will take and unleash counter uppercuts to Cotto’s head and hooks to his body.

Margarito will continue to press the action in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, coming in straight forward behind his jab and throwing long right hands. Cotto will use his speed advantage to hit the oncoming Margarito and pivot before sustaining the full force of Margarito’s bombs. Cotto will find a home for his overhand right, firing it behind a probing jab and over Margarito’s low left.

After three rounds, Cotto will be ahead and Margarito will start to kick his engine into the next gear. And what will ensue will be a classic encounter of The Irresistible Force meeting The Immovable Object. Cotto will be more willing to stand in front of Margarito, throwing overhand rights and thumping hooks to the body. Margarito will ignore his height and reach advantages and stand toe-to-toe, landing uppercuts and body shots, with several booming right hands mixed in.

The drama continues in the 6th round, when Margarito, leaking blood from an abrasion over his left eye, connects with a sizzling right hand and Cotto wobbles in the center of the ring. Cotto’s attempts to grab and hold and thwarted by the physically imposing Margarito who pushes him off and pounces with several right hands and a left uppercut that sends Cotto to the seat of his trunks. Clearly stunned, Cotto will rise, blood squirted from a cut in his mouth, and go immediately on the defensive, moving away from his attacker and clinching when the action gets too close. Margarito will move on the inside where a Cotto hook, possibly intentionally, strays below the belt line, halting Margarito’s attack and giving Cotto precious time to clear his head.

Cotto will resume boxing in the 7th and 8th rounds, spearing Margarito with his jab and alternating between landing shots to the head and body, while Margarito plods forward, looking for the homerun punch that he found success with earlier.

The final rounds will be what legends are made from. Margarito will be bleeding from a now-open cut over his left eye. His right cheek will be swollen and there will be welts and abrasions over his face and torso. Cotto’s mouth will be pouring blood there will be an array of bruises covering his face. Margarito will seem to be the fresher man in the 9th round, landing a series of right hands that snap Cotto’s head back, spraying blood and sweat. Cotto will find his second wind in the 10th and he will position himself right in front of Margarito, landing thunderous hooks to the torso that echo throughout the arena. Margarito will fire back in kind but a picture-perfect hook late in the round sends him staggering back against the ropes.

With both warriors content to display their will more than their skill, they will stand directly in front of each other over the final two rounds, in a space more defined for a telephone booth. Neither will give an inch to the other. Nationalistic pride is on the line, along with the coveted position of the world’s #1 welterweight. Powerful punches to the head and body, capable of crushing an ordinary man, are exchanged until the final bell. A standing ovation greets both fighters, as Cotto wearily raises his arms while Margarito pumps his fists in the air with a smile on his face.

The judges submit their verdict. 114-113, Margarito. 115-112 Cotto. 114-113 for the winner… by split decision… and STILL Undefeated… MIGUEL COTTO!!!

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