PACQUIAO vs. MARQUEZ 3 ** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

Trilogies are a special thing in boxing.  The combatants are often linked with each other.  Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez have been linked with each other since 2004 when they first met at 126 lbs.  Marquez had to rebound from three 1st round knockdowns and claw his way back over the next 11 rounds.  All three judges disagreed on the outcome, resulting in a split decision draw.  They next battled in 2008 at 130 lbs.  Pacquiao’s big knockdown in the 3rd round was the difference in yet another split verdict, with Pacquiao winning by a single point.  If you add the scores of their 24 previous rounds together, Pacquiao only leads by that single point.  Since they last fought, Pacquiao has literally exploded.  But Marquez’s smooth counter-punching style could be the Kryponite that renders Pacquiao powerless.

Trilogies are indeed a special thing in boxing.  And in an ironic and sad note, this bout takes place only five days after the passing of Smokin’ Joe Frazier, who tangled with Muhammad Ali in one of history’s most famous trilogies, their 1975 “Thrilla in Manilla” rubber match taking place in the birth country of one warriors of this triology.

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Pacquiao:

Age:  32 years old

Record:  53-3-2 (38 Knockouts)
Height:  5’6”
Weight:  145 ** Weight for last bout (05-07-11)
Reach:  67”

Marquez:

Age:  38 years old

Record:  53-5-1 (39 Knockouts)
Height:  5’7”
Weight:  138   * * Weight for last bout (07-16-11)
Reach:  67”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Pacquiao:

WBC Flyweight Champion (’98-‘99)

IBF Super Bantamweight Champion (’01-’03)
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’08)
WBC Lightweight Champion (‘08)

IBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’09)

WBO Welterweight Champion (’09-Pres)

Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #1 Boxer (Current)

Marquez:

IBF Featherweight Champion (’03-’05)

WBA Featherweight Champion (’04-’06)
WBO Featherweight Champion (’06)
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’07-’08)
WBA Lightweight Champion (’09-Pres)
WBO Lightweight Champion (’09-Pres)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #5 Boxer (Current)

STYLE

Pacquiao:

Pacquiao boxes from a southpaw stance, moving forward bobbing and feinting his way in.  Once in close, he uses his right hand to find the range and then unleashes his powerful left, either straight or looping, and will often double and triple it to the body and head.  Uses quick head shifts to slip punches while moving forward.  Has soundly developed under the tutelage of Freddie Roach, developing a decent right hook, either as a lead punch or thrown behind the left.  Uses quick head shifts to slip punches while moving forward.

Marquez:

A patient boxer who will take a few rounds to figure out his opponent’s style and then implement a strategy as the bout progresses.  Boxes well from the outside and likes to counter punch but is also proficient of forcing the action and wearing down an opponent with an aggressive attack, mainly focusing on the body.  Is most hittable when standing planted or moving backwards but also able to counter from this position.  Not a traditional power-puncher but can wear opponents down in a war-of-attrition.

STRENGTHS

Pacquiao:

* Unorthodox Style – Pacquiao is very unorthodox, even for a southpaw.  He moves straight in but is hard to time with his bobbing and head feints.  Before most opponents can time his onrushes, he is throwing whirlwind punches from a variety of angles.

* Speed – Pacquiao is quick and agile and his hands are deceptively fast.  He throws rapid one-two combinations or multiple left hands and will force opponents on the defensive.

* Stamina – Pacquiao fights just as hard in the last round as he does in the beginning.  He applies a lot of pressure and is constantly punching, wearing opponents down in the process.

Marquez:

* Technical Expertise – Marquez is a natural counterpuncher, who excels best when an opponent is coming forward but years of experience have improved all assets of Marquez’s game including fighting as the aggressor and body punching.

* Durability – In 59 career bouts, Marquez has never suffered a stoppage defeat.  Even in bouts where he has been hurt or floored, he has shown tremendous resiliency in recovering and continuing to fight.

* Increasing Power – For years, Marquez’s brother Rafael was seen as the superior puncher between the two brothers.  But lately, Juan Manuel has been living up to his “Dinamita” nickname, sitting down on his punches with explosive results.

WEAKNESSES

Pacquiao:

* Trouble with Boxers – Pacquiao is at his best when in against opponents who stand in front of him and try to trade as he usually overwhelms them.  But he has had difficulties against good boxers, especially in his previous bouts with Marquez, who was able to clearly outbox Pacquiao for extended periods in their two encounters.

* Tender Skin – Pacquiao has contended with cuts and scar tissue throughout his career.  He was cut badly by headbutts in his fight with Agapito Sanchez and also in his first fight with Erik Morales.  Even in some of his dominant wins, he has shown bruising around his eyes. His fragile skin is always a potential liability.

* Distractions – Pacquiao is being a cross-over star, not just in his native Philippines, but also in the United States. He is involved in his home country’s political agenda and is very close with his adoring fans.  He will sometimes let these distractions interfere with his training camp.  Also looming is the constant talk about superfight with Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Marquez:

* Cuts – It seems anymore that Marquez starts bleeding during the opening instructions.  While it has yet to noticeably hamper him, Marquez has had problems with scar tissue around both eyes, resulting in cuts and swelling, which can turn into a significant handicap against such a sharp puncher.

* Legs – While he has never been stopped in his career, Marquez has shown aging in his legs.  He is more willing to stand and trade and has suffered knockdowns in recent bouts with Mayweather and Michael Katsidis.  He was also floored three times in his first bout with Pacquiao and once in their rematch.

* Size – Marquez’s highest fighting weight was 142 against Mayweather and he looked significantly outsized.  His last few bouts were in the 135-138 range and will be hard-pressed to match the physical presence of Pacquiao, who has been fighting over 140 lbs for the last three years.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Pacquiao:

(05-07-11) Pacquiao turned the once dynamic “Sugar” Shane Mosley into a mere sugar substitute.  Pacquiao’s short left hand floored Mosley in the 3rd round and essentially took the fight out of him.  The nine following rounds looked more like a sparring session with Pacquiao controlling the action and winning a lopsided unanimous decision.

Marquez:

(07-16-11) Marquez stayed busy with an impressive 1st round destruction of Liker Ramos.  Marquez split the guard of the southpaw Ramos and detonated an explosive right hand on his chin that put him on the canvas for several minutes.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Pacquiao:

* Oscar De la Hoya (12/06/08) – It’s hard to imagine now but the consensus at the time was that De la Hoya would destroy the smaller Pacquiao in a landslide.  It was a landslide but it was Pacquiao dishing out the beating, ripping De la Hoya apart with both hands.  After eight one-sided and brutal rounds, a swollen and bloodied De la Hoya was beaten into permanent retirement.

* Miguel Cotto (11/14/09) – Pacquiao impressively dismantled the larger and physically imposing Cotto.  Pacquiao dropped the Puerto Rican superstar twice early and from the 6th round on, had him in a defensive shell, battering him until the referee stopped the bout in the 12th round.

* Ricky Hatton (05/02/09) – Pacquio ran through Hatton in fast and destructive fashion.  Hatton, while still an underdog, was expected to provide a challenge with his strength and mauling tactics.  Pacquiao unveiled an improved right hook and had Hatton down twice in the 1st round before crushing him with a devastating knockout in the 2nd.

Marquez:

* Juan Diaz (2/28/09) – Against the younger Diaz, Marquez had to weather the early storm before starting to break his larger opponent.  With Diaz rapidly weakening from a sustained body attack, Marquez increased his attack, flooring Diaz twice, the final time with a fierce uppercut, registering an impressive knockout win.

* Joel Casamayor (9/13/08) – The Cuban southpaw Casamayor was a multiple time champion with a rough and often foul-filled style and never stopped in 40 bouts.  The bout was fought on even terms for the first half when Marquez started to assert himself and handed Casamayor his first stoppage defeat in the 11th round.

* Manny Pacquiao (3/15/08) – In Marquez’s rematch with Pacquiao, he countered the Filipino’s aggressive style with boxing and counterpunching, fighting Pac-man on even terms and winning in the eyes of many spectators.  Recovered from a hard knockdown in the 3rd round and survived a vicious follow-up assault.  The razor-thin decision went to Pacquiao but also helped enhance Marquez’s legacy.

QUESTIONS

Pacquiao:

* Will he finally be able to solve Marquez’s style?

* Can he remain focused amid all the outside distractions?

* Will his recent successes leave him overconfident?

Marquez:

* Can he build upon his previous successes against Pacquiao?

* Can he survive in a slugfest against his younger and stronger opponent?

* Is he too small to effectively compete above 140 lbs?

PENECALE PREDICTION

The first two rounds will be close, a near carbon copy of the work these fighters have produced against each other in the past.  Pacquiao will be the aggressor, churning forward and trying to set up his laser left hand.  Marquez use will angles and counter punches to thwart Pacquiao’s onrushes.

Marquez will be more flat-footed and willing to stand in front of Pacquiao and try and time him.  Pacquaio will land one of his big lefts in the 3rd round and it will buckle Marquez’s knees and raise a welt under his right eye.

Starting in the 4th round, the momentum will start to swing heavily in favor of the Pilipino superstar.  Marquez will still find openings and land some counter right hands and uppercuts but Pacquiao’s superior workrate will start to overwhelm his long-time rival.  A Pacquaio combination of right hook-straight left will dump Marquez on the seat of his trunks late in the round.

Marquez will continue to fight hard but Pacquiao’s speed and combination punching will allow him to dictate the tempo and as the rounds progress, the Mexican warrior will start to look more like a gargoyle.

Before the start of the 7th round, referee Tony Weeks will ask the doctor to examine the cuts and swelling around Marquez’s eyes.  He will be allowed to continue but Pacquiao will continue to dominate the action with rapier-like combinations to the head and body.

Another Pacquiao combination in the 9th round will stagger Marquez and the cut over his left eye will keep flowing blood, some getting into Marquez’s eyes and hampering his vision.  The doctor will make another visit before the 10th round and reluctantly allow Marquez to continue.  Weeks will monitor the action closely and once Pacquiao lands another solid combination of punches in the 10th, Weeks will take the initiative and stop the fight at the 48 second mark of the 10th round.

Your winner by TKO is Manny Pacquiao!!!