Superfight Still in Limbo: Will Pacquiao Fight Mayweather?

Posted on | November 24, 2011 | No Comments

By: Patrick McElligott

Shortly before Manny Pacquiao fought Juan Manuel Marquez for the third time, Floyd Mayweather, Jr., announced that he was preparing to return to the ring on May 5, 2012. His manager made clear to the press that Floyd was looking specifically for the long-awaited showdown with Pac-Man. The Pacquiao camp correctly saw this as another effort by Mayweather to distract attention from another of Manny’s fights. Nothing new; business as usual.

After Manny was awarded the decision against Marquez last weekend, the dynamics in the boxing world shifted dramatically. First, many people believe that Marquez won this fight. This included Amir Khan, who is also trained by Freddie Roach. Many others saw it as being as close to a draw as is possible – even closer than either of their first two wars. In such a close fight, there aren’t huge arguments made when a judge favors either fighter by one or two points. That Glenn Trowbridge, usually a competent judge, had Manny up by four rounds was beyond reasonable, however.

The day after the bout, a friend asked me what I thought? I said that I had not purchased the PPV event, and was thus basing my preliminary opinion on what I had read on the computer between rounds, and had seen on television since. In fact, even if I had watched it “live” – either at ringside or on TV — it sounded so close a fight that I suspected emotions might have blurred people’s judgment. Yet two other facts could have come into play: first, that most people, myself included, expected Pacquiao to win convincingly; and second, that the possibility of a mega-fight versus Mayweather could also have impacted people’s perceptions.

Let’s consider promoter Bob Arum. The younger members of the boxing community may not realize this, but Arum used to work for the best US Attorney General in this nation’s history, Robert F. Kennedy. In his time in that office, Kennedy was primarily focused upon breaking up “organized crime.” And since for decades, organized crime was one of the controlling forces behind boxing – seeking to control the titles, etc – Kennedy’s office examined the sport closely. Kennedy selected a young and dedicated member of his staff, Bob Arum, to investigate the mob’s ties to boxing.

Years later, of course, Arum became a boxing promoter. During the golden era of welterweight and middleweights, Bob Arum helped to put on some of the very best fights between Hagler, Duran, Leonard, and Hearns. That was a time when one of my brothers, who spent significant time around the explosive-punching Tommy Hearns, became casually acquainted with Arum. And my brother always had an extremely high opinion of Arum (much higher than my own).

Times change. In recent times, Arum seemed hesitant to match two of the most outstanding prospects in boxing: the then-undefeated Juan Manuel Lopez and Yuriorkis Gamboa. In the early spring of this year, it was the second-most anticipated fight in the sport – after only Pacquiao versus Mayweather. Arum told reporters that he the bout to “marinade,” so that it would sell big on PPV to the general sports fans. I was not alone in believing that Arum was concerned that Lopez, who he had a larger investment in, would be highly vulnerable against Gamboa. Clearly, either man had the potential to win, but because styles make fights, I suspect that Gamboa would have stopped Lopez. But Arum opted to have Lopez fight Orlando Salido, seven months after Gamboa had decisioned the tough Mexican veteran. Salido stopped Lopez, thus ending a possible “super fight” between two undefeated
featherweights.

Before the third Pacquiao vs Marquez bout, Arum had told reporters that he thought a Pacquiao versus Mayweather fight would never happen, because Floyd was afraid of Manny. After the controversial decision, reports indicate that Arum is determined to promote “Pacquiao-vs-Marquez IV,” rather than what is still the biggest fight in the sport. Last Thursday, Oscar de la Hoya told an ESPN reporter that while everyone – both fighters, their camps, and Golden Boy Promotions – wants to make the match …. except Bob Arum. Oscar said that Arum is the only one intent upon keeping the fight from happening.

Freddie Roach said that another Marquez fight would be worth $30 million to Manny, while a Mayweather bout would make him $100 million. He indicated that the math is an important factor for Manny in deciding who to fight next. Certainly, Manny believes that he can beat anyone he fights, including Floyd Mayweather. And Freddie Roach knows that Pacquiao is capable of beating Mayweather. But it seems less likely that Roach still believes Manny would have win by a relatively easy TKO, as he claimed in the late summer.

If Pac-Man were to not fight Mayweather, and stuck to plans for three more bouts before retiring, he would likely make in the neighborhood of $65 million. Obviously, one Mayweather fight means more. But even more importantly, Manny Pacquiao is very aware of his role in boxing. People can debate where he ranks in boxing’s “all-time greats,” but there is absolutely no doubt that this man ranks high among the current era’s best fighters. The only real question that can be answered – for no matter how fun it is to consider Manny versus Henry Armstrong, or Ray Leonard, or Roberto Duran, that can only be speculation – is what would happen if he fought Floyd Mayweather, Jr.?

People might also debate if this fight would be as important in May, 2012, as it could have been in 2009-10? Although it would be as successful commercially, that seems a fair question. The only sure thing is that if they do fight, it will be the biggest money-maker in boxing history. While those who follow boxing the closest may have had their opinions changed about the likely outcome, by the recent Marquez fight, the general sports world will, by May, be happy to purchase a PPV “ticket” to watch the “super fight” of this era.

My opinion has not changed. While I believe that Pacquiao peeked in 2009,  and that the accumulated punishment that he has sustained in even his “easy” wins has caused him to be on a slight decline from that prime year, he will enter the ring at his best potential against Mayweather. Great champions are more than the sum total of their physical skills, and while Pac-Man has extraordinary physical abilities, it is his mind that have made him the champion that he is.

Still, even in his lop-sided victory over an intimidated Joshua Clottey, Pacquiao came out of the fight with more visible damage on his face. Seven months later, in an impressive thrashing of Antonio Margarito (who came out looking much worse), Manny absorbed tremendous punches. It would be an error to dismiss the significance of this bout, based upon the loaded-handwrap scandal. Margarito is a very big, powerful fighter. He hit Manny with body punches that few junior middleweights could stand up to.

There are rumors that since that bout, Amir Khan began to get the better of Pacquiao in their sparring sessions. Reportedly, Roach no longer has the two spar.

I had thought Marquez was too old to give Pacquiao the hell that he did last weekend. I was way wrong. Clearly, he was not “too old” to do it again. More, since “styles make fights,” we were treated to an outstanding fight between two equals.

I’ve watched the film of the bout several times now, and a few things stand out. First, I have no problem with either man being given a close decision; a draw, though unsatisfying, might have been the most fair verdict. But in a bout where in nine of the rounds, one or more judges scored it for Marquez, it’s hard to put a loss on his record.

Pacquiao supporters correctly note that Manny earns credit for being the aggressor. I’m less convinced of the accuracy or value of HBO’s “punch” statistics: there are definitely rounds where Marquez landed more than this unofficial measure gave him credit for. Perhaps by no coincidence, these were rounds where he landed numerous hard body shots. Also, defensive skills that lead to offensive punching need to be honored: there were numerous examples of Marquez slipping punches and countering – which I think has more value than just the punch landed. (Pacquiao definitely earned points this way, in my opinion, as well.)

One more point: Roach claimed Manny suffered from a foot-cramp in the bout. I do not believe this is true. There is no indication in any round, or between any rounds, of this. Pacquiao showed  intense footwork in every round – although he does have a habit of putting too much weight on his right foot, and too often leaves his left foot while reaching with power punches. It’s not often that a winner’s corner has to make any excuse. More, the expression on Manny’s face between rounds was very different from when he feels in control of a fight.

What stood out, I think, was that Marquez showed the very best blueprint for defeating Manny Pacquiao. Because Mayweather is also a counter-punching technician – though obviously not in the classic manner that Marquez is – I believe that any honest assessment recognizes that Floyd will be a difficult opponent for Pac-Man. More, Floyd is bigger, stronger, faster, and younger than Marquez. Even with his entire career experience, from his earliest amateur times until today, Floyd has not suffered even close to an average amount of wear-and-tear. Indeed, it is Mayweather’s hands that have suffered the most significant damage from boxing.

Because of his curious defensive skills – ones that simply cannot be taught, and should always be discouraged in young fighters attempting to copy them – Floyd’s detractors tend to overlook how physically strong he is, and how hard he actually punches. While Manny Steward correctly points out that Floyd rarely throws combinations of more than two or three shots, there is a reason why his opponents are unable to capitalize off of this. Why, for example, did Oscar de la Hoya stop jabbing Mayweather after the sixth round in their fight, when his jab had clearly been his most effective weapon up until then? The answer is that those counter, jab-cross combinations were hurting him.

In a manner that annoys his critics, Mayweather has stated that there are four ways to beat Pacquiao, and no way to beat him. I agree fully with the assessment on Pacquiao – while recognizing that it’s a lot easier to identify them, than to execute those tactics in the ring. I do think that there is a way to beat Floyd, although it would require a special combination of physical gifts and mental strength. Right now, there is no one his size that is likely to do it on any given night. Several years ago, I had told friends that the only fighter that had the physical requirements was Kermit Cintron. Being a tall, rangy fighter, at a time when Floyd fought almost exclusively off the ropes, Cintron had the speed, reach, and physical strength to potentially win a decision in a slow, boring fight – similar to Hearns vs Benitez. But Kermit lacked that mental toughness even then, and his
physical skills have faded in recent years.

Fighters like de la Hoya, Mosley, Cotto, Paul Williams, and Margarito posed less serious risks. There is no question that Pacquiao stands a much better chance today of beating Mayweather, than any of those guys ever did – which is not intended as a knock on any of them. It’s that combination of “styles make fights,” plus the mental toughness, which puts Pacquiao in a better position to really challenge Floyd.

Let’s hope that these two great champions fight each other next May. It’s important to the sport that they do. The results – including if it leads to a rematch, or perhaps a trilogy – will help to cement each man’s place among the all-time great champions of the sport. One thing is certain: it will turn out to have been worth the wait.

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