Preview and prediction: Kelly Pavlik VS. Bernard Hopkins

Posted on | October 14, 2008 | 1 Comment

By Tony Penecale

Bernard Hopkins is a man that nobody wants to fight. While it is apparent that he is no longer the fighter he was in his prime, the 43-year-old Philadelphia warrior is still full of tricks and has an uneventful style that it is almost impossible to look good against. Kelly Pavlik is the upcoming sensation, a 26-year-old wrecking ball from the once-proud industrial town of Youngstown. Pavlik is more than happy to put his middleweight title on the shelf and step up to face the legendary Hopkins at a catch-weight of 170 lbs. Can the young gladiator stake his claim as the top dog and send Hopkins into retirement? Or does the old master still have enough tricks up his sleeve to thwart Pavlik?

STATISTICS

Pavlik:
Age – 26 years old
Height – 6’2”
Weight – 159 lbs (last bout on 6/7/08)
Reach – 75”
Record – 34-0 (30)

Hopkins:
Age – 43 years old
Height – 6’1”
Weight – 173 lbs (last bout on 4/19/08)
Reach – 75”
Record – 48-5-1 (32)

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Pavlik:
WBC Middleweight Champion (’07-Pres)
WBO Middleweight Champion (’07-Pres)
Ring Magazine Middleweight Champion (’07-Pres)

Hopkins:
IBF Middleweight Champion (’95-‘05)
WBC Middleweight Champion (’01-‘05)
WBA Middleweight Champion (’01-’05)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’97-’99, ’00)
WBO Middleweight Champion (’04-’05)
Ring Magazine Middleweight Champion (’01-’05)
IBO Light Heavyweight Champion (’06-‘08)
Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Champion (’06-‘08)
Pound-for-Pound #1 Boxer (’02-’05)

STYLE

Pavlik:
A tall and lanky brawler who likes to mix it up and throw knockout-caliber punches. Possesses crippling power in both hands and a fearless attitude. Often ignores height and reach advantages and presses the action, fighting in the trenches, turning bouts into wars of attrition. Stalks patiently behind his jab and then opens his arsenal. Is open to counter punches but does not deter him from pressing the attack. Is more physically imposing than his appearance leads you to believe.

Hopkins:
Is no longer the fighter who would apply pressure from the opening bell, winging right hands and left hooks until his opponent succumbed. That version of Hopkins evolved into the patient boxer-puncher seen today several years ago. Uses footwork and works angles well to keep opponents moving and off-balance, dictating the pace with his jab and opening up opportunities for his sharp straight right and left hook. Once in close, will attack the body and use rough-house tactics on the inside, including low blows and elbows. Is also a very tough and physically strong fighter. While still in top-notch condition, is no longer able to fight hard for three minutes a round and he compensates by picking his opportunities.

STRENGTHS

Pavlik:
1) Power – Pavlik is a highlight-reel puncher. Has the ability to knock an opponent out with one shot. His jab is thudding. The straight right is his best punch but is also capable of ending a bout with a left hook.
2) Poise – Pavlik keeps his composure when under fire. Not afraid to walk into opponent’s danger zone and is anxious to retaliate when hit. Was down and in serious trouble in his first against Taylor, but was able to weather the storm and regain his senses.
3) Range – Pavlik is a tall fighter with long arms. He can land his power punches from the outside, but is also an effective puncher in close. Was able to outjab the more athletic Taylor and set up openings for booming rights from afar and left hooks inside.

Hopkins:
1) Student of the Game – There is not a style today that Hopkins hasn’t seen. From his early career in Philadelphia clubs all the way to his PPV main events, Hopkins has faced and defeated all types of styles including a number of devastating punchers.
2) Defense – Trying to land a clean punch, much less a combination, on Hopkins is like trying to hold water in your hands. Hopkins will block, slip, and parry most punches that come his way, but his best defensive maneuver is the “shoulder roll” where he will make his opponent miss by rolling with the punch and then fire back with a right hand or uppercut at his wide-open adversary.
3) Confidence – Hopkins believes that he can handle any opponent at any weight. He is fearless in the ring and will not back down. Often times, his steely demeanor will have opponents unnerved and already beaten when they step into the ring.

WEAKNESSES

Pavlik:
1) Ignores Defense – Pavlik focuses so much on his own offense, he leaves himself open to be hit with flush punches. Often keeps his hands low when moving in to throw punches. In the first fight against Taylor, it almost proved disastrous.
2) Tender Skin – Pavlik has skin that easily damages from opponent’s punches. In many bouts, he has come out with an assortment of bruises and lumps. Not only can it affect his vision, but it can be a negative influence on the judges.
3) Lack of Speed – Pavlik lacks natural hand and foot speed. Is often plodding in the ring. Compensates by getting his punches off first.

Hopkins:
1) Age – All great fighters will age and it is now showing on Hopkins. He can no longer fight at a bristling pace and his inability to do so allows him to get outworked and outscored during stretches of the bout.
2) Enemies – Hopkins has a reputation of making enemies, whether it is battling with promoters, arguing with broadcasters, throwing an opponent’s flag on the ground, or as he did most recently, making racial comments. While this often doesn’t equate to an in-ring weakness, it does leave a sour taste in the mouth of many officials, and can be very influential in close fights.
3) Fading Power – The Executioner’s Axe seems to have dulled over the years. The younger version of Hopkins was capable of taking out an opponent with one punch like he did to Steve Frank and Joe Lipsey. Those who stood up to his punches were issued frightful beatings. The modern version of Hopkins doesn’t carry the same pop in his gloves. Only one of his last six wins has ended inside the distance.

BEST PERFORMANCES

Pavlik:
1) Edison Miranda (5/19/07) – Miranda was touted to be the new HBO star and Pavlik was seen as a mere stepping stone on the way to a dream match with Taylor. But Pavlik took the fight to Miranda from the start, making good on his word to back Miranda on his heels, and blasting him with power punches. Pavlik finally crumbled Miranda with a monster hook in the 6th round and put the finishing touches on in the 7th.
2) Jermain Taylor (9/29/07) – Pavlik didn’t allow Taylor to box, using a stiff jab to negate Taylor’s. Survived a brutal 2nd round, climbing off the canvas after absorbing a Taylor barrage of punches. Pavlik cleared his head and resumed his offensive attack in the 3rd, forcing Taylor on his heels. With Taylor curiously ahead after six rounds, Pavlik finished the job, trapping Taylor in a corner and hammering him to the canvas with a series of power punches, annexing his title in the process.
3) Jose Luis Zertuche (1/27/07) – Zertuche had never been down in his boxing career (pro or amateur). Pavlik made sure to change that punishing him, knocking him down for the first time with a left hook. In the 8th round, Pavlik finished his impressive display with a crushing right hand that sent Zertuche face-face to the canvas, unconscious before he hit the mat.

Hopkins:
1) Felix Trinidad (9/29/01) – Hopkins was the IBF and WBC middleweight champion coming into this unification bout but he was overshadowed by the Puerto Rican superstar and a 3-1 underdog going in. While he promised to match Trinidad in a rough and dirty fight, he shocked everyone, especially Trinidad, by boxing early and building a commanding lead. Trinidad was visibly frustrated going into the latter half of the bout and attacked without abandon. Hopkins took full advantage and punished Trinidad with a variety of power punches, wobbling him at the end of the 10th before finishing him in the 12th to become the unified champion and owner of the Sugar Ray Robinson trophy.
2) Glen Johnson (7/20/97) – At the time, it looked like this bout was a masterful win over a boxer with an undefeated albeit padded record. It has become more impressive considering that Johnson has since won versions of the light heavyweight title and scored a spectacular knockout over Roy Jones. Johnson came into the bout with an impressive punch, solid chin, and rugged determination. But it was all Hopkins from the opening bell as he dished out a frightful beating on the inside. Hopkins continued the assault each round, forcing the referee to visit Johnson’s corner several times, before finally halting the contest in the 11th.
3) Robert Allen (2/6/99) – In their first encounter, six months prior, Allen had greatly troubled Hopkins with his physical southpaw style before an aggressive Mills Lane attempt to break a clinch resulted in Hopkins falling out of the ring and spraining an ankle. Before the rematch, Allen boasted that Hopkins had taken the easy way out and would be dethroned in the rematch. The Hopkins that entered the ring was focused and seething and punished Allen without mercy, knocking him down in the 2nd and 6th rounds. Allen’s only chance was to try and initiate a disqualification by flopping every time Hopkins landed on his waistline. Another brutal volley in the 7th forced the referee to stop the bout, amid protests from Allen’s camp, to which the referee responded “I don’t see him (Allen) complaining.”

LAST BOUT
Pavlik:
KO 3 Gary Lockett (6/14/08) – It was a mandatory title defense which proved to be an utter mismatch. Pavlik stalked Lockett from the start, landing his jab and right hand and will. Lockett was sent to the canvas three times before the slaughter was halted in the 3rd round.

Hopkins:
Split Decision Loss to Joe Calzaghe (4/19/08) – In a bout for the Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight title, Hopkins started fast, dropping the undefeated Welsh fighter with a right hand. But Calzaghe fought back and outworked Hopkins over the last five rounds to pull out a split decision win.

QUESTIONS

Pavlik:
1) Will Pavlik leave himself open to Hopkins counter punches?
2) Will Pavlik be frustrated by Hopkins clinching and dirty tactics?
3) Can he be the first man to knock out Hopkins?

Hopkins:
1) If he falls behind early, can Hopkins rally down the stretch?
2) Will Hopkins be able to fight three minutes a round?
3) How will Hopkins neutralize Pavlik’s power?

THE PREDICTION

Even though, by proximity, Hopkins is close to his own backyard, it will be the legions of Pavlik faithful that make him the crowd favorite. But Hopkins likes to play the role of the villain so he will feel more at home in that role.

Pavlik will start by moving forward, trying to find the range on Hopkins. Hopkins will move laterally, with his hands high, and throwing a few pawing jabs. Pavlik will throw his jab but have little success in landing it. Hopkins will time and land a right hand and then move into a clinch, trying to land a few shots to Pavlik’s ribs and hips on the inside. The crowd will immediately voice displeasure with Hopkins tactics.

Pavlik will keep applying pressure in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but unlike Calzaghe who was successful in throwing volleys of light punches to keep Hopkins on the defensive; these punches will be harder but slower, giving Hopkins a better opportunity to counter. Hopkins will find home for single counter right hands and will follow up by tying up Pavlik and trying to rough him up on the inside.

Hopkins will come up for the 4th round, on his toes, with his left hand low and right cocked. Pavlik will try to exploit the opening to land his right, but it will be Hopkins rolling with the punch and countering with several straight rights and uppercuts. But Hopkins will be his own worst enemy as every time he scores effectively, he will clinch and try to grapple with Pavlik on the inside. Realizing that Hopkins has a tight, nearly impenetrable defense, Pavlik will concentrate on landing punches on Hopkins shoulders and chest, trying to score points and wear him down in the process.

Pavlik’s steady pressure in the 5th will force Hopkins to keep his guns holstered as he will need to play defense. Pavlik will not have a lot of success landing flush punches but he will be throwing two punches to every one for Hopkins and will be outworking him throughout the round. Pavlik will land a solid right hand to the jaw but the steel-chinned Hopkins will smile and roll his shoulders. Late in the round, a clash of head will cause a small cut next to Pavlik’s left eye.

The pattern will remain throughout the 6th through 8th rounds with Pavlik moving forward, trying to land leather on the slippery veteran. Hopkins will counter with hard, single punches and an occasional elbow, but for the most part, he will engage Pavlik in a wrestling warfare, trying to out-muscle him and wear him out on the inside.

Hopkins will sense he is behind on the cards and he will open up and try to swing the momentum in his favor, cutting down on his movement and standing in front of Pavlik. Pavlik will land a few jabs and Hopkins will be short with a counter right hand but he will step in with a hard hook to the body that hurts Pavlik. Undeterred, Pavlik will try to land his own body shots, and a brief back-and-forth exchange of punches results, halted by another Hopkins clinch. The repeated clinching and rough-housing will frustrate Pavlik but he will keep his composure and not deviate from his gameplan.

The final three rounds will see Hopkins fighting in spurts and landing several right hands and Pavlik countering with thudding punches to the shoulders and torso. The action will be sporadic but as earlier in the fight, Pavlik will be more consistent with his offensive output. At the final bell, both fighters will raise their arms in apparent victory.

In the end, Pavlik will be sporting a cut by his left eye and he will have a variety of bruises and abrasions, a testament to the precise counter punching of Hopkins. The judges tally their scores. 115-113, 115-113, and 116-113 for the winner by unanimous decision… Kelly “The Ghost” Pavlik!!!

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