Calzaghe vs. Jones, Preview and Prediction By Tony Penecale

Posted on | November 6, 2008 | 1 Comment

CALZAGHE VS. JONES

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

For years, Roy Jones Jr. was “The Man”. Playing basketball during the day and defending his title at night. Punching from odd angles and still scoring knockouts. For years, Joe Calzaghe was just another fighter from across the pond, toiling in anonymity to most American fans. Roy Jones has since become human. He is no longer Superman but still extremely gifted. Joe Calzaghe has climbed to the top of the mountain and reigns supreme at Light Heavyweight. It would have been considered a mismatch five years ago. But now it is set for the Light Heavyweight Championship. Calzaghe wants to retire undefeated. And Jones wants one more taste of his former glory. Who comes out on top here?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Calzaghe: Age: 36 years old
Record: 45-0 (32 Knockouts)
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 173 ** Weight for last bout (4-19-08)
Reach: 73”

Jones : Age: 39 years old
Record: 52-4 (38 Knockouts)
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 169 ** Weight for last bout (1-19-08)
Reach: 74”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Calzaghe: WBO Super Middleweight Champion (’97-’Pres)
IBF Super Middleweight Champion (’06)
WBA Super Middleweight Champion (’07-Pres)
WBC Super Middleweight Champion (’07-Pres)
Ring Magazine Super Middleweight Champion(’07-Pres)
IBO Light Heavyweight Champion (’08-Pres)
Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Champion (’08-Pres)
Jones: IBF Middleweight Champion (’93-‘94)
IBF Super Middleweight Champion (’94-’96)
WBC Light Heavyweight Champion (’96-’04)
WBA Light Heavyweight Champion (’98-’04)
IBF Light Heavyweight Champion (’99-’04)
WBA Heavyweight Champion (’03)
Ring Magazine #1 Rated Pound-4-Pound Boxer (’94-97)

STYLE

Calzaghe: A southpaw punching machine. Calzaghe moves forward and throws punches in bunches, often averaging 75-80 punches per round. Calzaghe works behind his southpaw jab and uses his fast hands to fire combinations to the head and body. Is always in tremendous condition and can keep up a torrid pace in the late rounds. Sometimes will ignore defense when trying to open up his own offense.

Jones: Often with his hands at his waist, Jones relies on his natural speed and reflexes to outmaneuver and overwhelm opponents. Jones will sometimes abandon the jab and use lead hooks from the outside, either as a set up or a knockout punch. Once an opponent has been hurt, Jones will fire a volley of punches to the head, often punctuated by double and tripling his left hook.

STRENGTHS

Calzaghe: * Speed – Calzaghe has extremely quick hands and uses his rapid-fire punching attack to land punches and keep opponents on the defense. His advantage in speed has carried him to victories over younger and harder-punching adversaries.
* Work Ethic – Calzaghe averages over 80 punches per round and most opponents cannot keep pace with him. He often picks up the pace in the later rounds and dominates in the championship rounds.
* Youth – For a 36-year-old veteran of 45 fights, Calzaghe is very fresh. He hasn’t taken a lot of punishment in his career and he fights at a younger man’s pace.

Jones: * Experience – Boxing has been with Jones since his father trained him when he was very young. Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the silver medal in the ’88 Olympic games (dubious scoring robbed him of the gold medal). He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 15 years, facing and defeating all styles.

* Speed – While his hand and foot speed has diminished since his prime, Jones still has a quick trigger. He doesn’t throw punches in bunches like he once did but he still is adept at throwing two or three quick punches before moving from danger.

* Size – In the last decade, Jones has competed at light heavyweight and has even bulked up to fight at heavyweight. Using the help of fitness guru Mackie Shilstone, Jones maintained his muscle and strength, which gives him a significant advantage over an opponent who has only competed once above 168 lbs.

WEAKNESSES

Calzaghe: * Punching Power – Calzaghe doesn’t own devastating power
in either hand. Most of his stoppage victories have come from
an accumulation of punishment over the course of a fight. If behind on the scorecards, it is unlikely that Calzaghe can win with a dramatic KO.
* Inconsistent – In his best wins, Calzaghe has been excellent. But he has looked very inconsistent in other bouts. He looked very uninspired against David Starie and encountered some rough moments against the tough but limited Omar Sheika and Sakio Bika. When Calzaghe is on, he is spectacular. When he is off, he is ordinary.
* Brittle Hands – Calzaghe’s hand problems are documented. The soreness n his hands often forces him to abandon attempts of putting power behind his punches and he often compensates by throwing flurries of quick but minimally-damaging punches

Jones: * Chin – For many years, Jones seemed invincible. Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson finally found out that if Jones was hit solidly on the chin, there was a weakness. Jones lost back-to-back knockout losses, including a frightening loss to Johnson, where Jones remained unconscious for several minutes.

* Age – In his prime, Jones was able to depend on his reflexes to compensate for some fundamental mistakes since no opponent could land clean punches against him. As he has gotten older, his reflexes have slowed, and he has been unable to avoid punches like in his younger days.

* Weight –After his move to heavyweight, Jones admittedly had problems getting back to 175 lbs. Although Jones weighed 169 lbs in his last bout, he appeared sluggish and had long stretches of inactivity during the bout.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Calzaghe: Calzaghe ventured to the United States for the first time and annexed the Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Title from Bernard Hopkins. Hopkins floored Calzaghe in the 1st round with a precise counter right and flustered him during the early going. Calzaghe picked up the tempo over the final seven rounds and outworked Hopkins down the stretch en route to a close and disputed split decision victory.

Jones: A dream fight that came eight years too late saw Jones win a workman-like unanimous decision over faded legend Felix Trinidad. Trinidad’s pressure carried the early rounds but Jones was able to take control and score two knockdowns in taking home the decision.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Calzaghe: * Bernard Hopkins (12/2/00) – Questions if Calzaghe could fight in America against boxing legend were answered as Calzaghe climbed off the canvas to outhustle Hopkins down the stretch and capture a split decision victory. Calzaghe’s breath-taking pace winded the aging but supremely-conditioned champion and forced him into a retreat mode over the bout’s second half.
* Jeff Lacy (3/4/06) – Lacy was a super middleweight titlist with an Olympic pedigree and devastating punching power. Many expected him to not only defeat Calzaghe in his backyard, but to win by stoppage. Calzaghe was dominant throughout the bout, battering Lacy and knocking him down in the 12th round before winning a dominant decision
* Mikkel Kessler (11/3/07) – Coming into this bout, Kessler, a Dane known as “The Viking Warrior” was sporting an undefeated record and was known for wearing opponents down with a punishing attack. The first half of the bout featured some good two-way action but as the fight progressed, it was Calzaghe who shifted his attack in overdrive and dominated down the stretch winning by unanimous decision.

Jones: * James Toney (11/18/94) – This was the first pay-per-view main event for Jones, and it came against Toney, a tough, well-schooled boxer, who many considered the best in the sport. Jones made it look easy, dominating a listless Toney from the beginning, and knocking him to the canvas in the 3rd round, and winning a clear unanimous decision by scores of 119-108, 118-109, and 117-110.

* Montell Griffin (8/7/97) – Their first meeting had come five months earlier, with an unfocused Jones struggling with Griffin’s awkward style, before finally losing his title on a disqualification, after he struck Griffin on the canvas. The Jones that came to the rematch was focused and angry, which was evident when he staggered Griffin only moments into the opening round, and nearly decapitated him with a monster left hook, winning his title back after only two minutes.

* Virgil Hill (4/25/98) – Hill was a polished professional who was a long-reigning light heavyweight champion. Jones kept him on the defensive early and was ahead after three rounds, before suddenly ending matters in the 4th, landing a right hand to Hill’s ribs, breaking several and leaving him grimacing on the canvas.

QUESTIONS

Calzaghe: * Does he have the power to gain Jones’ respect?

* Will his hands be able to hold up in the late rounds?

* Can he match speed with Jones?

Jones: * Will Jones weaken himself trying to make weight?

* Can Jones still fight three hard minutes a round?

* If he falls behind early, can Jones readjust his gameplan?

PENECALE PREDICTION

Jones will open the bout by using lateral movement and not letting Calzaghe set his feet. Boxing with his hands low, Jones will try to bait Calzaghe in forward and counter. Calzaghe will come forward behind his southpaw jab but in the early going, he will find little success in landing anything of significance on Jones, while eating a few counter rights in the process.

Jones will try to keep the tempo steady by staying in the center of the ring and using bolo moves and feints, Calzaghe will try to back Jones to the ropes and make things uncomfortable for him by throwing volumes of rapid-fire punches. Jones will slip, move, and duck, all the while making faces, but it will be clear that Calzaghe’s pace is bothering him.

In the 4th round, Jones will move back to the center and slow the pace by throwing a simple two-punch combination, jab to the head and right to the body, and moving laterally and setting up his one-two again. Calzaghe will try to take advantage of the moments Jones sets his feet by unleashing three and four punch combinations. While they are not damaging punches, they will accomplish two crucial things: forcing Jones to fight hard on his aging legs and scoring points in the judges eyes.

After six rounds, the fight will be even. As it was in the Hopkins fight, it will be Calzaghe’s workrate that carries the day. Jones will certainly have his moments and his punches will raise welts across the Welshman’s face. Even though Calzaghe doesn’t have the one-punch power to put Jones out like Tarver and Johnson once did, he does have the fresher legs and he will apply heavy pressure, firing quick blows in succession.

Over the final two rounds, Jones will try to bring back his one-two, mixing the right to the head and body, and adding several lead left uppercuts. But when he throws, Calzaghe will be quick to retaliate with four and five punch combinations.

It will go to the scorecards and it will read along the lines of 114-114, 116-113, and 115-113… For the Winner by Majority Decision… And STILL Undefeated… JOE CALZAGHE!!!

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