TONY PENECALE’S PACQUIAO VS. HATTON PREVIEW AND PREDICTION

Posted on | April 27, 2009 | No Comments

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

Worlds are about to collide! When Manny Pacquiao started out as a 106 lb fighter in 1995, nobody thought the Pilipino fighter would become the “biggest” man in boxing. But he achieved that status in 2008. He has grown into a phenomenal competitor and a legend in his home country. Ricky Hatton has always been popular in his native England but over the last few years, he has become a world-recognized figure. There is more at stake this weekend than Hatton’s IBO 140 lb title. Pacquiao wants to prove he is the #1 boxer in the world. Hatton wants to knock him from that perch. National pride is on the line when Worlds Collide!

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Pacquiao: Age: 30 years old
Record: 48-3-2 (36 Knockouts)
Height: 5’6”
Weight: 142 ** Weight for last bout (12-06-08)
Reach: 67”

Hatton: Age: 30 years old
Record: 45-1 (32 Knockouts)
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 140 * * Weight for last bout (11-22-08)
Reach: 65”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Pacquiao: WBC Flyweight Champion (’98-‘99)
IBF Super Bantamweight Champion (’01-’03)
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’08)
WBC Lightweight Champion (‘08)
Ring Magazine #1 Rated Pound-4-Pound Boxer (’07-Prs)

Hatton: IBF Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’07)
WBA Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’06)
WBA Welterweight Champion (’06)
IBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’07-Pres)

STYLE

Pacquiao: Pacquiao boxes from a southpaw stance, moving forward bobbing and feinting his way in. Once in close, he uses his right hand to find the range and then unleashes his powerful left, either straight or looping, and will often double and triple it to the body and head. Has soundly developed under the tutelage of Freddie Roach, developing a decent right hook, either as a lead punch or thrown behind the left. Uses quick head shifts to slip punches while moving forward.

Hatton: A pure pressure fighter who makes each bout a war of attrition. Likes to get right in his opponents chest and maul on the inside, clutching, brawling, and winging strength-sapping body shots with both hands. Once the opponent is worn down, he is a very good finisher. With such a wide-open attack, his offense serves as his best defense. Since he started training with Floyd Mayweather Sr., he has employed his jab more and being a better defensive fighter. He can be hit on the way in but is willing to take two punches to land one of his own.

STRENGTHS

Pacquiao: * Unorthodox Style – Pacquiao is very unorthodox, even for a southpaw. He moves straight in but is hard to time with his bobbing and head feints. Before most opponents can time his onrushes, he is inside throwing punches like a buzzsaw.

* Speed – Pacquiao is quick and agile and his hands are deceptively quick. He throws quick one-two combinations and will force opponents on the defensive.

* Stamina – Pacquiao fights just as hard in the last round as he does in the beginning. He applies a lot of pressure and is constantly punching, wearing opponents down in the process.

Hatton: * Body Attack – Once on the inside, Hatton cranks out punishing body shot after punishing body shot. Any part of the torso, including arms, shoulders, and hips are relentlessly pounded until the hands come down.

* Aggression – Hatton attacks from the opening bell. Always in tremendous shape, he doesn’t give his opponent a second to breathe. In conjunction with his body attack, Hatton’s aggressiveness will leave an opponent both physically and psychologically beaten.

* Passion – For the last several years, Hatton has been a iconic figure in his native England. He yearns to reach that status in the United States and is willing to fight his heart out to get there.

WEAKNESSES

Pacquiao: * Trouble with Boxers – Pacquiao is at his best when in against opponents who stand in front of him and try to trade as he usually overwhelms them. But he has had difficulties against good boxers, especially Juan Manuel Marquez, who was able to clearly outbox Pacquiao for extended periods in their two encounters.

* Cuts – Pacquiao has contended with cuts and scar tissue throughout his career. He was cut badly by headbutts in his fight with Agapito Sanchez and also in his first fight with Erik Morales. His fragile skin is always a potential liability.

* Distractions – Pacquiao is a popular celebrity in his native Philippines, even running for political office there. Keeping him focused and disciplined between bouts has often been a challenge for his team.

Hatton: * Balance – When pressing the action, Hatton has a bad habit of stepping in with his back foot, squaring himself up and giving his opponent a wide open target to hit, which could be disastrous against a Paquiao’s sizzling lefts.

* Skin – Like many English fighters over the years, Hatton has to deal with soft skin. He has been susceptible to facial cuts and bruises, most notably in his fight with Luis Collazo, where Hatton suffered severe swelling to his eyes.

* Lifestyle – Hatton has a bad habit of overindulging in the party scene between fights, often allowing his weight to significantly increase, earning him the nickname of “Ricky Fatton”.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Pacquiao: Solidified his standing as the #1 Pound-for-Pound boxer in the world by dominating the Oscar De la Hoya, a multiple-time world champion and future Hall-of-Famer. Pacquiao utilized his advantage in speed to overwhelm a weight-drained De la Hoya, forcing a stoppage after eight rounds.

Hatton: Showed increased boxing skills in a dominant win over world-ranked Paulie Malinaggi. Hatton buckled Malinaggi with a right hand in the 2nd round, and was able to beat him in all facets of the game, outboxing and outslugging him and forcing Malinaggi’s corner to throw in the towel in the 11th round.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Pacquiao: * Oscar De la Hoya (12/06/08) – Pacquiao stole the show from “The Golden Boy.” 90% of polled experts had picked De la Hoya to win in a landslide. It was a landslide but it was Pacquiao dishing out the beating, ripping De la Hoya apart with both hands. After eight one-sided and brutal rounds, a swollen and bloodied De la Hoya was beaten into permanent retirement.

* Juan Manuel Marquez (3/15/08) – The consensus two best fighters in boxing had fought to a split draw four years earlier and the rematch was long awaited. Marquez had success when he was able to box and out-maneuver Pacquiao. But Pac-man’s power surfaced, flooring Marquez hard in the 3rd round and landing the harder punches throughout. On the strength of the knockdown, it was Pacquiao winning the split decision by a single point.

* Marco Antonio Barrera (11/15/03) – Little was known about Pacquiao when he stepped into face the legendary Barrera. After 11 rounds, much was known about Pacquiao as he marched forward and punished Barrera with scorching left hands, finally overwhelming and stopping him.

Hatton: * Kostya Tszyu (6/4/05) – Even though the bout was in Hatton’s native England, many figured the long-reigning champion, Tszyu, would handle the upstart challenger and retain his title. Hatton smothered Tszyu from the opening bell, never giving him the range he needed to unleash his offense. The pressure gradually sapped the strength and resolve of the aging champion, forcing him to surrender on his stool after the 11th round.

* Jose Luis Castillo (6/23/07) – While it was generally regarded that Castillo was on the decline, his epic wars with Diego Corrales were still fresh in people’s minds and there was some doubt if Hatton could deal with the power-punching Mexican. But Hatton ran through him, making Castillo look like a shot fighter, punishing him to the body and finishing matters with one crushing blow to the liver, putting Castillo down for the count in the 4th round.

* Mike Stewart (10/1/04) – Before he was a contestant on “The Contender Season 2”, Stewart was an up-and-coming prospect. Hatton made his trip across the Atlantic a painful one, flooring Stewart twice before the bout was stopped in Round 5. When asked if his nose was broken, Stewart responded saying he “felt like a lot of things were broken.”

QUESTIONS

Pacquiao: * Will he be overconfident coming into this bout?

* Is he strong enough to muscle Hatton on the inside?

* Will he become frustrated with Hatton’s mauling tactics?

Hatton: * Will he revert back to his face-first brawling ways?

* Does he have the speed to match Pacquiao?

* Will his hard-partying lifestyle finally slow him down?

PENECALE PREDICTION

Hatton will start out using more lateral movement and jabbing, trying to use angles to negate Pacquiao’s rushes. Pacquiao will come forward looking for an opening for his left hand. Hatton will step side to side and then try to engage Pacquiao, attacking his body and mauling on the inside. Pacquiao will try to keep his hands free from Hatton’s clutching and throwing looping lefts and uppercuts.

Pacquiao’s advantage in hand speed will show as early as the 2nd round as he will start firing left hands down the middle. Hatton will be much spryer that De la Hoya was and he will be willing and able to engage Pac-man in the exchanges. Much to the displeasure of Floyd Sr., Hatton will abandon his boxing strategy go iron-for-iron with Pacquiao.

By the 4th round, the bout will be fought in close quarters. It will be Pacquiao’s speed versus Hatton’s strength. Pac-man will lead with his right hook and fire multiple lefts to the head and body as Hatton advances. Hatton will absorb punishment on the way in but his pride and resolve will walk him through the punishment as he continues to fire wide punches to Paquiao’s ribs and torso.

Pacquiao’s rapid fire offense will begin to take its toll on Hatton’s face and signs of swelling and discoloration will be evident around both of Hatton’s eyes by the mid rounds and blood will be seeping from his nose. As the fight continues to swing towards Pacquiao, Hatton will revert more to what brought him to the dance and will charge in face-first hoping to overwhelm and break down the smaller man. He will have periods of success backing Pacquiao up, but most of Hatton’s rushes will be met with flurries of quick and hurtful punches.

Pacquiao will be in solid control by the 8th round, sharpshooting Hatton with straight lefts to the face and right hooks to the head. Hatton’s right eye will closed and his left eye will also be impaired. Hatton will be backing up by this point. After another one-side round in the 9th, referee Kenny Bayless will consult with the doctor in Hatton’s corner. Mayweather will send Hatton out for the 10th round but essentially he will be spent by that stage. A hard right hook followed by a pair of sizzling left hands will buckle Hatton’s knees and send him stumbling in the corner where Pacquiao will pounce, reigning left hands forcing Bayless to jump in and stop the fight.

The winner by TKO at 1:45 of the 10th round is MANNY PACQUIAO!!!

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