TONY PENECALE’S MAYWEATHER VS. MARQUEZ PREVIEW AND ANALYSIS

Posted on | September 16, 2009 | No Comments

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

It was an easy money bet that Floyd “Money” Mayweather wouldn’t stay in retirement. Is it due to financial problems stemming from the IRS or ego problems stemming from the love affair that boxing fans and writers have with the man who ascended to Mayweather’s former “Best Boxer in the World” status, Manny Pacquiao? Since Mayweather couldn’t get Pacquiao for this fight, he is taking on the man who is recognized as the “2nd Best Boxer in the World”, the man who gave Pacquiao two of his toughest and most-closely contested bouts, Juan Manuel Marquez. It will be an intriguing match-up of Mayweather’s speed and flash against Marquez’s consistency and steady attack. Is Mayweather back as the gold standard? Or will Marquez send the “Money” market crashing?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Mayweather:
Age: 32 years old
Record: 39-0 (25 Knockouts)
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 147 * * Weight for last bout (12-8-07)
Reach: 72”

Marquez:
Age: 36 years old
Record: 50-4-1 (37 Knockouts)
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 134 * * Weight for last bout (2-28-09)
Reach: 67”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Mayweather: 1996 Olympic Bronze Medalist
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’98-’02)
WBC Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
Ring Magazine Lightweight Champion (’02-’04)
WBC Junior Welterweight Champion (’05-’06)
IBF Welterweight Champion (’06)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’07)
Ring Magazine Welterweight Champion (’06-‘07)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #1 Boxer (’05-‘07)

Marquez: IBF Featherweight Champion (’03-’05)
WBA Featherweight Champion (’04-’06)
WBO Featherweight Champion (’06)
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’07-’08)
WBA Lightweight Champion (’09-Pres)
WBO Lightweight Champion (’09-Pres)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #2 Boxer (’08-Pres)

STYLE

Mayweather: A pure boxer with great speed who does everything well with an arsenal that includes a snapping jab, accurate right hand, and left hook that can be doubled and tripled with tremendous effect. Uses feint moves to freeze opponents and open punching lanes. Tucks his chin well behind his shoulder to roll with punches. Even on the ropes, he is a difficult target to land a solid punch. He doesn’t have great punching power. Most of his stoppage victories come from outpunching and outclassing his opponents but rarely scoring clean knockouts.

Marquez: A patient boxer who will take a few rounds to figure out his opponent’s style and then implement a strategy as the bout progresses. Boxes well from the outside and likes to counter punch but is also proficient of forcing the action and wearing down an opponent with an aggressive attack, mainly focusing on the body. Is most hittable when standing planted or moving backwards but also able to counter from this position. Not a traditional power-puncher but can wear opponents down in a war-of-attrition.

STRENGTHS

Mayweather: * Experience – Boxing is in Mayweather’s blood since his childhood. Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the bronze medal in the ’96 Olympic games. He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 11 years, facing and defeating all styles.

* Speed – Speed Kills. Mayweather has incredible hand and foot speed, which allows him to move inside, unload his offense, and dart out of range before his opponent can set himself.

* Ring Generalship – Mayweather knows every inch of the ring and how to control a fight. He knows when to attack, when to box, when to turn up the heat, and when to coast. Mayweather owns the ring when he is in there.

Marquez: * Technical Expertise – Marquez is a natural counterpuncher, who excels best when an opponent is coming forward but years of experience have improved all assets of Marquez’s game including fighting as the aggressor and body punching.

* Durability – In 55 career bouts, Marquez has never suffered a stoppage defeat. Even in bouts where he has been hurt or floored, he has shown tremendous resiliency in recovering and continuing to fight.

* Increasing Power – For years, Marquez’s brother Rafael was seen as the superior puncher between the two brothers. But lately, Juan Manuel has been living up to his “Dinamita” nickname, sitting down on his punches with explosive results.

WEAKNESSES

Mayweather: * Brittle Hands – Mayweather has been plagued throughout his career with hand injuries. The soreness in his hands, especially the right hand, reduces Mayweather’s exceptional offense, often forcing him to rely on his foot speed to dance around and pitter-pat opponents.

* Distractions – Floyd Jr. has reconciled with his father Floyd Sr., who has been assisting in training camp, which often causes a battle of egos with his brother and head trainer, Roger. Compounding issues with assault charges brought against Roger for a separate incident. During a time when there needs to be a harmonious training environment to combat Mayweather inactivity, this could be potentially disastrous.

* Punching Power – Most of Mayweather’s stoppage wins have come from an accumulation of punches. The usual result is the referee or opposing corner stopping the bout to prevent further punishment. It is rare to see Mayweather finish a bout with one punch dating back to his days as a 130 lb boxer.

Marquez: * Cuts – While it has yet to noticeably hamper him, Marquez has had problems with scar tissue around both eyes, resulting in cuts and swelling, which can turn into a significant handicap against such a sharp puncher.

* Slow Starter – The 1st round of his first fight with Pacquaio saw Marquez floored three times. In the rematch, Marquez was hurt early and floored in the 3rd round. He also encountered troubles early in his bouts with Diaz and Casamayor.

* Size – While he has appeared stronger and more physical in recent bouts, Marquez was fighting at 130 lbs just 18 months ago. This will be his first bout at 147 lbs after competing his last two at 135 lbs.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Mayweather: (12/08/07) –Mayweather last competed 21 months ago when he took on Ricky Hatton, both putting their undefeated records on the line. After nine rounds, Mayweather was still undefeated. Once Mayweather figured out Hatton’s pressure style, it became a one-sided affair until Mayweather closed the show in the 10th round, first flooring Hatton with a counter left hook and then finished him with a blistering combination.

Marquez: (02/28/09) – Marquez captured two vacant lightweight titles by going into Juan Diaz’s hometown and dismantling the younger and stronger fighter. Diaz had his moments early but as the bout progressed, Marquez used the younger man’s aggression against him and sapped his strength with a punishing body attack. With Diaz bleeding and stunned, Marquez scored the first knockdown with a combination of right hands and put Diaz down and out with a single uppercut.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Mayweather: * Diego Corrales (1/20/01) – Experts were torn on who to pick in this one with many leaning towards Corrales to win by KO. Mayweather never let him in the bout, knocking him down five times before the bout was halted in the 10th round.

* Arturo Gatti (6/25/05) – Although Mayweather was a solid betting favorite, many expected Gatti to make things rough for Mayweather. It never happened as Mayweather floored Gatti in the 1st round and dealt out a severe beating before Gatti’s corner stopped the bout after six one-sided rounds.

* Ricky Hatton (12/08/07) – Hatton was undefeated coming into the bout and set a gameplan of constant pressure to wear out Mayweather. After a few uncomfortable rounds, Mayweather was able to find his range and take over, flooring Hatton twice in the 10th round and forcing a stoppage.

Marquez: * Juan Diaz (2/28/09) – Against the younger Diaz, Marquez had to weather the early storm before starting to break his larger opponent. With Diaz rapidly weakening from a sustained body attack, Marquez increased his attack, flooring Diaz twice, the final time with a fierce uppercut, registering an impressive knockout win.

* Joel Casamayor (9/13/08) – The Cuban southpaw Casamayor was a multiple time champion with a rough and often foul-filled style and never stopped in 40 bouts. The bout was fought on even terms for the first half when Marquez started to assert himself and handed Casamayor his first stoppage defeat in the 11th round.

* Manny Pacquiao (3/15/08) – In Marquez’s rematch with Pacquiao, he countered the Filipino’s aggressive style with boxing and counterpunching, fighting Pac-man on even terms and winning in the eyes of many spectators. Recovered from a hard knockdown in the 3rd round and survived a vicious follow-up assault. The razor-thin decision went to Pacquiao but also helped enhance Marquez’s legacy.

QUESTIONS

Mayweather: * Will Mayweather be rusty after a near-two-year hiatus?

* Can Mayweather’s legs stand up to Marquez’s pressure and body punches?

* Will the distractions in training camp with Floyd Sr. and Uncle Roger carry over into Mayweather’s performance?

Marquez: * Can Marquez carry his power and speed with him in his first foray into the heavier weight class?

* Will the tender skin around Marquez’s eyes slice open from Mayweather’s sharp punches?

* Will the toll of many wars finally catch up to the aging Marquez?

PENECALE PREDICTION

Mayweather will open the bout by boxing from a distance, using his footwork and angles to keep the bout in the center of the ring and Marquez off balance. Marquez will take the role of aggressor and move forward, trying to cut Mayweather off and trap him against the ropes.

Mayweather’s superior speed, coupled with Marquez’s traditional slow start, will allow him to carry the first three rounds. Marquez will make a subtle adjustment in the 4th round, jabbing with Mayweather both to the head and body, in an effort to disrupt the faster man’s offense and create openings to land other punches. While Mayweather will prove an elusive target for head shots, Marquez will find success landing single but hard shots to the ribs and torso.

While Marquez continues to press the action through the middle rounds, Mayweather will alter his strategy and allow Marquez to advance, feinting his jab, firing quick right hands and pivoting out of danger, regaining control of the action.

Slightly ahead on points going in to the 8th round, Mayweather will show signs of rust and his legs will start to fatigue from Marquez’s pressure and body punches, forcing him to stand stationary. Marquez will continue the pursuit with single punches, trying to outwork Mayweather and seize the momentum.

With the bout virtually even going into the 10th round, a Mayweather combination punctuated with a stinging left hook will tear the skin around Marquez’s right eye. While the cut will not endanger a fight-stoppage, it will bother Marquez and energize Mayweather, who will pick up the pace and use his advantages in youth and speed to outwork and outdistance Marquez down the stretch until the final bell.

Both fighters will raise their hands in victory. As the decision is announced, it will go in Mayweather’s favor, in a unanimous nod, by close but accurate scores.

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