Patrick McElligott’s Manny Pacquiao Vs. Miguel Cotto Preview

Posted on | November 9, 2009 | 1 Comment

Saturday, November 14 – Las Vegas, Nevada (HBO PPV) – Welterweights: Miguel Angel Cotto (34-1, 27 KOs) vs. Manny Pacquiao (49-3-2, 37 KOs)

Certain truths are self-evident. Among them, that the term “Super Fight” is over-used by promoters seeking to inflate ticket and PPV sales. However, this coming Saturday, boxing fans are being treated to an actual Super Fight, between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto. In a year when the sport has enjoyed a revival in every division except the heavyweights, this fight is second to none.

On paper, it would appear that Pac Man has to be favored. He is in the prime of one of boxing’s truly legendary careers. He has grown in size and strength, yet has retained his speed of hand and foot, and his punching power has translated extremely well to the higher weight divisions. More, in Freddie Roach, Manny has the perfect match as his trainer: Roach understands the mental and physical dynamics of boxing as well as any trainer today. In fact, like Pacquiao, Freddie has secured his spot among the best ever. Now, that is a tough combination to compete against in the brutal, unforgiving world of boxing.

Yet, in Miguel Cotto, Pacquiao faces his most dangerous test in the higher weight divisions. It would be easy to focus too much attention on Cotto’s lone loss, when he was TKOed in 11 rounds by Antonio Margarito in July of 2008. But Miguel Cotto brings far, far more into the ring than one defeat – a loss that certainly has an asterisk next to it, due to the loaded hand wraps controversy.

Cotto is, in fact, one of the most intense of predators inside the ring. Except for the loss to Margarito, Miguel has been able to ultimately impose his will on some of the best fighters of his era, including opponents who have speed, superior boxing skills, and serious punching power. Cotto has fast hands, good balance and upper-body movement, can cut off the ring, and the ability to throw his punches in a manner that can offset an opponent’s greater hand speed. And, as Paul Malignaggi has noted, he is the “dirtiest” fighter in the business: he will use his head, shoulders, and elbows as weapons. In his war with Zab Judah, Cotto also displayed a willingness to throw as many hard low blows as needed to impair his foe’s defensive skills.

It is also important to recognize that Miguel Cotto’s best punch is his left hook to the body. It is extremely difficult to fight back if you have had the wind knocked out of you. It’s impossible to remain on your feet, if your opponent has curled your legs underneath you with a shot to the liver. That’s just a reality in the ring, and one that accounts for the two out of three loses on Pacquiao’s record that were by knockout.

Still, although no outcome will surprise me, I tend to favor Manny by TKO somewhere around the 8th or 9th round. The biggest factor, in my opinion, will be his advantage in hand speed. Pacquiao is a crisp puncher at welterweight, and Cotto’s eyebrows will not hold up. The reduction in his field of vision will make it easier for Pacquiao to deliver punches that Miguel does not see coming. And Cotto has a history of being hurt by fast punches that he doesn’t see coming – not only in the Ricardo Torres fight, but more importantly, even against Malignaggi.

If Manny Pacquiao wins, it will set the stage for the only fight in boxing that would be even more anticipated as a “Super Fight” – against Floyd Mayweather, Jr. It seems to me to be one of those fights that boxing demands. Not just the experts, and the fans, but boxing history. While I believe that we will see that fight, likely next June in Yankee Stadium, and it’s build-up will be outrageous, it might not be as exciting a fight as we are going to watch this weekend.

Enjoy the fight. Good luck to both Pacquiao and Cotto, and may the best man win.

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