COTTO VS. PACQUIAO In-Depth Preview and Analysis

Posted on | November 10, 2009 | 1 Comment

By: Tony Penecale

Manny Pacquiao is the hottest boxer on the planet today. He brings an exciting combination of speed, power, and charisma and he has set the boxing world on fire in the last year. Miguel Cotto once held a similar distinction. He was the next great Puerto Rican sensation, a willing brawler who didn’t climb obstacles. He bashed through them. Even though a devastating loss has left him as potentially vulnerable. Cotto has the physical strength and punching power to reign supreme again. Can Cotto halt Pacquiao’s meteoric ascent to the top and ruin a potential super fight with Floyd Mayweather? Or, will Pacquiao burn through Cotto on his way to a money fight with “Money” Mayweather?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Cotto:
Age: 29 years old
Record: 37-1 (27 Knockouts)
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 146 ** Weight for last bout (06-13-09)
Reach: 67”

Pacquiao:
Age: 30 years old
Record: 49-3-2 (37 Knockouts)
Height: 5’6”
Weight: 138 ** Weight for last bout (05-02-09)
Reach: 67”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Cotto:
WBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’04-‘06)
WBA Welterweight Champion (’06-‘08)
WBO Welterweight Champion (’09)

Pacquiao:
WBC Flyweight Champion (’98-‘99)
IBF Super Bantamweight Champion (’01-’03)
WBC Super Featherweight Champion (’08)
WBC Lightweight Champion (‘08)
IBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’09)
Ring Magazine #1 Rated Pound-4-Pound Boxer (’07-Prs)

STYLE

Cotto:
A physical stalker who boxes from the orthodox stance, Cotto has developed better boxing skills but still prefers to come straight ahead, and wear opponents down with a vicious body attack. Cotto favors hooks and uppercuts to straight punches and turns every bout into a war of attrition. Doesn’t have lights-out punching power but is very punishing. Most of his stoppage victories have come late, after his opponent has been worn down. Will often leave himself open to counters when trying to unleash his offense.

Pacquiao:
Pacquiao boxes from a southpaw stance, moving forward bobbing and feinting his way in. Once in close, he uses his right hand to find the range and then unleashes his powerful left, either straight or looping, and will often double and triple it to the body and head. Uses quick head shifts to slip punches while moving forward. Has soundly developed under the tutelage of Freddie Roach, developing a decent right hook, either as a lead punch or thrown behind the left. Uses quick head shifts to slip punches while moving forward.

STRENGTHS

Cotto:
* Body Attack – Cotto is quite possibly the best body puncher in the sport today. He wings thunderous hooks on the inside that make contact with whatever is available: ribs, shoulders, torso, chest, and arms, with punishing results.

* Strength – Cotto is a strong and physical fighter. While he fights at welterweight, he has the physical stature and physicality of a super middleweight, which he uses to muscle and wear down opponents.

* Heart – Cotto carries a lot of pride when he steps into the ring. He has been in a number of wars where he’s been cut, knocked down, or in other adverse situations, and Cotto has shown a champion’s heart.

Pacquiao:
* Unorthodox Style – Pacquiao is very unorthodox, even for a southpaw. He moves straight in but is hard to time with his bobbing and head feints. Before most opponents can time his onrushes, he is throwing whirlwind punches from a variety of angles.

* Speed – Pacquiao is quick and agile and his hands are deceptively fast. He throws rapid one-two combinations or multiple left hands and will force opponents on the defensive.

* Stamina – Pacquiao fights just as hard in the last round as he does in the beginning. He applies a lot of pressure and is constantly punching, wearing opponents down in the process.

WEAKNESSES

Cotto:
* Effects of Wars – Could the wars that Cotto finally be catching up to him? He’s had tough fights with Ricardo Torres, Zab Judah, and Shane Mosley before losing in brutal fashion to Antonio Margarito. It will be interesting to see how much he really has left.

* Chin – Combined with an offense that leaves him prone to counter punches, Cotto’s shaky chin can be a recipe for disaster. Cotto was wobbled or dropped in several of his earlier fights and then battered and stopped against Margarito.

* Inexperienced Trainer – For his entire career, Cotto had been trained by his uncle, Evangelista, a union that, while successful, was not harmonious. The pair split bitterly earlier this year and Cotto appointed former nutritionist/fitness expert Joe Santiago as his lead trainer, who is relatively unknown outside of Puerto Rico.

Pacquiao:
* Trouble with Boxers – Pacquiao is at his best when in against opponents who stand in front of him and try to trade as he usually overwhelms them. But he has had difficulties against good boxers, especially Juan Manuel Marquez, who was able to clearly outbox Pacquiao for extended periods in their two encounters.

* Cuts – Pacquiao has contended with cuts and scar tissue throughout his career. He was cut badly by headbutts in his fight with Agapito Sanchez and also in his first fight with Erik Morales. His fragile skin is always a potential liability.

* Distractions – Pacquiao is a popular celebrity in his native Philippines, even running for political office there. Against better judgment, he spent part of his training for this fight in the Philippines, with several hangers-on following him and the distractions upsetting Freddie Roach.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Cotto:
(6-13-09) Struggled mightily against the tough Ghana boxer, Joshua Clottey. Cotto scored a quick knockdown in the 1st round but was cut in the 3rd and was hampered throughout by the blood flowing in his eyes. Each boxer had his moments and the close split decision was rendered in Cotto’s favor.

Pacquiao:
(05-02-09) Destroyed the popular Englishman, Ricky Hatton in two explosive rounds. Pacquiao floored Hatton twice in the opening round, the first time with a lead right hook and again with a combination against the ropes. Hatton was knocked out cold with a looping left hand in the 2nd round and spent several minutes on the canvas.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Cotto:
* Zab Judah (6/09/07) – Cotto had to endure some difficult moments early against the speedy southpaw, getting rocked and suffering a cut under his lip. Cotto’s relentless pressure gradually broke down Judah, sapping his strength. Cotto finished the show, dropping Judah in the 9th round before finally stopping him in 11 rounds.

* Mohamad Abdulaev (6/11/05) – Cotto systematically broke down Abdulaev over 9 rounds, pounding him to the head and body, swelling his eye completely shut, and forcing him to surrender. An impressive performance against the highly-respected 2000 Olympic Gold Medalist.

* Shane Mosley (11/10/07) – Cotto surprisingly opened by boxing and jabbing with the quicker Mosley and caught him off guard by doing so, building an early lead. Mosley rallied late but Cotto hung tough and won a close unanimous decision, which considering Mosley’s continuing success, makes it look even more impressive.

Pacquiao:
* Oscar De la Hoya (12/06/08) – Pacquiao stole the show from “The Golden Boy.” 90% of polled experts had picked De la Hoya to win in a landslide. It was a landslide but it was Pacquiao dishing out the beating, ripping De la Hoya apart with both hands. After eight one-sided and brutal rounds, a swollen and bloodied De la Hoya was beaten into permanent retirement.

* Juan Manuel Marquez (3/15/08) – Pacquiao and Marquez were seen as the consensus two best fighters in boxing who had fought to a split draw four years earlier and the rematch was long awaited. Marquez had success when he was able to box and out-maneuver Pacquiao. But Pac-man’s power surfaced, flooring Marquez hard in the 3rd round and landing the harder punches throughout. On the strength of the knockdown, it was Pacquiao winning the split decision by a single point.

* Ricky Hatton (05/02/09) – Pacquio ran through Hatton in fast and brutal fashion. Hatton, while still an underdog, was expected to provide a challenge with his strength and mauling tactics. Pacquiao unveiled an improved right hook and had Hatton down twice in the 1st round before crushing him with a devastating knockout in the 2nd.

QUESTIONS

Cotto: * Have the tough bouts taken an adverse effect on Cotto?

* Can he cope with Pacquiao’s speed and buzz saw attack?

* Will the lack of experience in his corner hinder Cotto’s gameplan?

Pacquiao:
* Is he on the same page with Freddie Roach?

* Can he withstand Cotto’s strength and body punches?

* Will his recent successes leave him overconfident?

PENECALE PREDICTION

Cotto will open moving to his left, away from Pacquiao’s dangerous left hand. Pacquiao will feint and move forward, taking the aggressive role, while Cotto will use his jab and movement, trying to keep Pacquiao at bay and time his offensive rushes. Pacquiao will continue to move forward but will show respect to Cotto’s dangerous punching power.

Pacquiao will take advantage of his superior speed in the 2nd round and use his right hook to halt Cotto’s movement and set him up to land straight lefts right down the middle. Cotto will finish the round trickling blood from his mouth.

With Pacquiao controlling the first two rounds, Cotto will try to reassert himself in the 3rd and 4th rounds and use his strength to stymie Pacquiao and wear him down with body punches. While Cotto has brief pockets of success moving forward and landing some body punches, Pacquiao will use his legs to escape danger and use the angles to find new ways to land his laser-like left hand.

By the mid rounds, the fast past will start to take a toll and Cotto will seem to be heavy-legged and moving much slower than Pacquiao, who will keep firing punches at a rapid pace. Near the end of the 6th round, Pacquiao will throw his left hand in triple succession and the last one will tear a gash over Cotto’s right eye, leaving his face in a crimson mask.

Pacquiao will be in solid control by the 7th round, using his superior firepower to reign blows on Cotto with straight lefts to the face and right hooks to the head. Cotto will be seriously impaired and in serious trouble, backing up by this point. After another one-side round in the 8th, referee Kenny Bayless will consult with the doctor in Cotto’s corner. Cotto will come out for the 9th round but essentially he will be spent by that stage. Pacquiao will keep on the gas pedal, landing a hard right hook followed by a massive left hand buckling Cotto’s knees and sending him stumbling to the canvas. Cotto will rise unsteadily and Bayless will reluctantly allow him to continue. Pacquiao will pounce, reigning left hands and forcing Bayless to jump in and stop the fight.

The winner by TKO at 1:45 of the 9th round is MANNY PACQUIAO!!!

Comments