TAYLOR VS. PAVLIK ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Posted on | September 25, 2007 | 3 Comments
TAYLOR VS. PAVLIK
** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **
By Tony Penecale
There has been an infusion of new blood in the middleweight division. Former Olympian Jermain Taylor dethroned long-reigning champion Bernard Hopkins and has tallied four defenses against quality opposition. Kelly Pavlik, a vicious puncher from Youngstown Ohio, is the #1 contender. Who will reign supreme when they meet in Atlantic City?
AGE, RECORD, AND STATS
Taylor: Age: 29 years old
Record: 27-0-1 (17 Knockouts)
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 159 3/4 ** Weight for last bout (5-19-07)
Reach: 74”
Pavlik: Age: 25 years old
Record: 31-0 (28 Knockouts)
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 159 3/4 * * Weight for last bout (5-19-07)
Reach: 75”
STYLE
Taylor: Is a well-schooled, technically-proficient boxer. Opens the bout behind a razor-sharp jab that keeps opponents off balance while dictating the pace. Also uses the jab to keep opponents moving back and creating openings for his straight right hand.
Pavlik: A tall and lanky brawler who likes to mix it up and throw knockout-caliber punches. Often ignores height and reach advantages and presses the action, fighting in the trenches, turning bouts into wars of attrition.
STRENGTHS
Taylor: * Athleticism – Taylor moves well with speed, agility, and above-average power.
* Jab – Taylor owns quite possibly the best jab in boxing. It is fast and sharp, with the ability to hurt or cut an opponent.
* Experience – Taylor has been in there with future Hall of Famers Bernard Hopkins and Winky Wright in three straight bouts. Tallied defenses against sturdy, volume-puncher Kassim Ouma and speedy, defensive-specialist Corey Spinks. Also competed in the 2000 Olympics, capping off an extensive amateur career. Has seen all types of styles in his fistic career.
Pavlik: * Power – Pavlik is a highlight-reel puncher. Has the ability to knock an opponent out with one shot. The straight right is his best punch but is also capable of ending a bout with a left hook.
* Poise – Pavlik keeps his composure when under fire. Not afraid to walk into opponent’s danger zone and is anxious to retaliate when hit.
* Range – Pavlik is a tall fighter with long arms. He can land his power punches from the outside, but is also an effective puncher in close.
WEAKNESSES
Taylor: * Fades Late – Taylor often boxes in a very tense manner which causes him to fade as the bout progresses. In both bouts against Hopkins and also against Ouma, Taylor was visibly tired in the later rounds and allowed his opponents to capture the momentum.
* Confidence – Boxing against such a difficult stretch of boxers has seemed to hinder not boost Taylor’s confidence. In his last bout, against Spinks, Taylor was cautious throwing punches against his light-punching opponent.
* Dissention – Taylor has not seemed to gel well with legendary trainer Emmanuel Stewart who signed on as chief trainer for Taylor’s last three bouts. Stewart is an offense-minded trainer and Taylor does not seem to heed his instructions between rounds.
Pavlik: * Ignores Defense – Pavlik focuses so much on his own offense, he leaves himself open to be hit with flush punches.
* Skin – Pavlik has seen that easily damages from opponent’s punches. In other bouts, he has come out with an assortment of bruises and lumps.
* Lack of Experience Against Good Boxers – Pavlik has fought a handful of good fighters that stood right in front of him. But his experience against good boxers, giving moment and angles, is limited.
BEST PERFORMANCES
Taylor: * Daniel Edourd (2/19/05) – Edourd was an undefeated brawler, a short spark-plug, that many thought would give Taylor fits. Taylor dominated from the opening bell landing his jab at will and overwhelming Edourd with power shots until the bout was halted in the 3rd round.
* William Joppy (12/4/04) – Joppy was a former world titlist who was looking to get back in the title picture. Taylor dominated him over 12 rounds boxing well, scoring a knockdown in the 5th round, and winning every round on the judge’s scorecards.
* Bernard Hopkins (7/16/05) – While many thought Hopkins deserved the decision, it doesn’t take away from what Taylor did in the bout. He gave Hopkins fits throughout, controlling the pace with the jab, and ended his decade-long title reign.
Pavlik: * Edison Miranda (5/19/07) – Miranda was touted to be the new HBO star and Pavlik was seen as a mere stepping stone on the way to a dream match with Taylor. But Pavlik took the fight to Miranda from the start, wearing him down before blasting him out in the 7th round.
* Jose Luis Zertuche (1/27/07) – Zertuche had never been down in his boxing career (pro or amateur). Pavlik punished him, knocking him down with a left hook, before finally knocking him cold with a single right hand in the 8th round.
* Grady Brewer (6/8/01) – This fight has taken on greater significance since Brewer won the 2nd series of The Contender. When they met as up-and-coming prospects, it was all Pavlik, as he floored Brewer three times before the bout was stopped in the 2nd round.
QUESTIONS
Taylor: * Will Taylor try to silence his critics and stand in front of Pavlik and put himself in danger?
* How will he respond to Pavlik’s constant pressure?
* If he falls behind early, will be able to sustain an attack later in the bout?
Pavlik: * Is he fast enough to keep pace with Taylor?
* Can his skin hold up to Taylor’s sharp jab?
* If Taylor dominates early, how will Pavlik respond?
TO WIN
Taylor: Taylor will need to box and give angles to Pavlik. He will need to keep the pace slow with this jab. A slugfest does not benefit Taylor so he will have to land first and move out of danger, which would cause damage to Pavlik’s face and open the doors for a late-round stoppage or decision victory.
Pavlik: Pavlik will need to jab with Taylor and force him to abandon his best weapon. From there, he will be able to more successful in landing right hands and forcing Taylor on his heels where Pavlik can end the show.
PENECALE PREDICTION
Taylor will open the bout with movement. He is not a dancer but he will shuffle laterally, firing single jabs against the aggressive Pavlik. Taylor is a fast starter, so he will control the first three rounds. He will feint with the jab, and then offer it in double and triple doses. It will land and will occasionally snap Pavlik’s head back.
Pavlik will show some wear around his eyes in the 4th round, but he will keep pressing forward. Every time Taylor stops, Pavlik will land a heavy-handed punch, primarily to Taylor’s shoulder’s and torso.
Stewart would implore Taylor to become more aggressive and regain the momentum that is slipping in Pavlik’s favor. While Taylor has glimpses of success, Pavlik will regain control in the 7th and 8th rounds. As Pavlik continues to press the action, the ring will start to get smaller for Taylor and he will find himself against the ropes more often.
Taylor will make the mistake of standing in front of Pavlik late in the 8 th round and exchanging punches. A booming right hand-left hook combo from Pavlik will send Taylor slumping to the canvas. He will pull himself up at the count of eight and after a long look; the referee will let it continue. Pavlik will look to close the show, firing a volley of punches and Taylor staggers back to the ropes. A monster left hook will contact and snap Taylor’s head back which will be enough to convince the referee to stop the bout. The “Ghost of Youngstown” will be the new middleweight champion of the world.