HOPKINS VS. JONES II: THE REMATCH PREDICTION AND PREVIEW

Posted on | March 30, 2010 | 1 Comment

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

It is said that “revenge is a dish best served cold.” If that is the case, then Bernard Hopkins has been storing a cold dish of revenge in his freezer for Roy Jones Jr. for nearly 17 years. Back in May 1993, Hopkins and Jones were the #1 and #2 ranked contenders for the vacant IBF middleweight title. In bout that featured cautious action, the 24-year-old Jones was able to score points early, and held off the rally of the 28-year-old Hopkins, en route to winning a unanimous decision. Since then, both fighters have gone on to greater things. Jones went on to win titles all the way up to heavyweight and Hopkins did eventually win the middleweight title before making 20 impressive defenses. They are two of the greatest fighters of this generation and while both are passed their prime, the grudge and trash-talk has kept this an interesting matchup. Both fighters promise to be less cautious in this encounter. And to sweeten the pot, it has been agreed that the money will be split 50/50 but in the event of a knockout, the winner will get a 60/40 split. What will happen when revenge is on the line?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Hopkins:
Age: 45 years old
Record: 50-5-1 (32 Knockouts)
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 175 ** Weight for last bout (4-19-08)
Reach: 75”

Jones :
Age: 41 years old
Record: 54-6 (40 Knockouts)
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 179 ** Weight for last bout (12-3-09)
Reach: 74”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Hopkins:
IBF Middleweight Champion (’95-‘05)
WBC Middleweight Champion (’01-‘05)
WBA Middleweight Champion (’01-’05)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’97-’99, ’00)
WBO Middleweight Champion (’04-’05)
Ring Magazine Middleweight Champion (’01-’05)
IBO Light Heavyweight Champion (’06-‘08)
Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Champion (’06-‘08)
Ring Magazine #1 Rated Pound-4-Pound Boxer (’02-’05)
Jones:
IBF Middleweight Champion (’93-‘94)
IBF Super Middleweight Champion (’94-’96)
WBC Light Heavyweight Champion (’96-’04)
WBA Light Heavyweight Champion (’98-’04)
IBF Light Heavyweight Champion (’99-’04)
WBA Heavyweight Champion (’03)
Ring Magazine #1 Rated Pound-4-Pound Boxer (’94-97)

STYLE

Hopkins:
No longer the fighter who would apply pressure from the opening bell, winging right hands and left hooks until his opponent succumbed. That version of Hopkins evolved several years ago into the patient boxer-puncher seen today. Uses footwork and works angles well to keep opponents moving and off-balance, dictating the pace with his jab and opening up opportunities for his sharp straight right and left hook. Once in close, will attack the body and use rough-house tactics on the inside, including low blows and elbows. Is also a very tough and physically strong fighter. While still in top-notch condition, is no longer able to fight hard for three minutes a round and he compensates by picking his opportunities.

Jones:
Often with his hands at his waist, Jones relies on his natural speed and reflexes to outmaneuver and overwhelm opponents. Jones will sometimes abandon the jab and use lead hooks from the outside, either as a set up or a knockout punch. Once an opponent has been hurt, Jones will fire a volley of punches to the head, often punctuated by double and tripling his left hook. Jones also is able to mix in lead uppercuts, bolo punches, and the occasional body shot to keep opponents guessing.

STRENGTHS
Hopkins:
* Student of the Game – There is not a style today that Hopkins hasn’t seen. From his early career in Philadelphia clubs all the way to his PPV main events, Hopkins has faced and defeated all types of world-class opponents. A master ring strategist, Hopkins has the ability to adapt his game plan to counter whatever he faces in the ring.
* Defense – Trying to land a clean punch, much less a combination, on Hopkins is like trying to hold water in your hands. Hopkins will block, slip, and parry most punches that come his way, but his best defensive maneuver is the “shoulder roll” where he will make his opponent miss by rolling with the punch and then fire back with a right hand or uppercut at his wide-open adversary.
* Confidence – Hopkins believes that he can handle any opponent at any weight. He is fearless in the ring and will not back down. Often times, his steely demeanor and unrelenting focus will have opponents unnerved and already beaten when they step into the ring.

Jones:
* Experience – Boxing has been with Jones since his father trained him when he was very young. Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the silver medal in the ’88 Olympic games (dubious scoring robbed him of the gold medal). He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 17 years, facing and defeating all styles.

* Speed – While his hand and foot speed has diminished since his prime, Jones still has a quick trigger. He doesn’t throw punches in bunches like he once did but he still is adept at throwing two or three quick punches before moving from danger.

* Unorthodox Style – The best asset Jones possesses is style that is incredibly hard to figure out. Mixing a combination of movement and punches from a variety of angles, it is a difficult assignment to try and predict and successfully counter Jones.

WEAKNESSES

Hopkins:
* Age – All great fighters will age and it is now showing on Hopkins. He can no longer fight at a bristling pace and his inability to do so allows him to get outworked and outscored during stretches of the bout.
* Enemies – Hopkins has a reputation of making enemies, whether it is battling with promoters, arguing with broadcasters, throwing an opponent’s flag on the ground, or making controversial comments. While this often doesn’t equate to an in-ring weakness, it does leave a sour taste in the mouth of many officials, and can be very influential in close fights.
* Fading Power – The Executioner’s Axe seems to have dulled over the years. The younger version of Hopkins was capable of taking out an opponent with one punch like he did to Steve Frank and Joe Lipsey. Those who stood up to his punches were issued frightful beatings. The modern version of Hopkins doesn’t carry the same pop in his gloves and is more likely to try an “execute” an effective strategy instead of serving his opponent’s head on the chopping block. Only one of his last eight wins has ended inside the distance.

Jones:
* Chin – For many years, Jones seemed invincible. Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson finally found out that if Jones was hit solidly on the chin, there was a weakness. Jones lost back-to-back knockout losses, including a frightening loss to Johnson, where Jones remained unconscious for several minutes. In his last bout, a seemingly innocent punch from Danny Green floored Jones and forced the stoppage.

* Age – In his prime, Jones was able to depend on his reflexes to compensate for some fundamental mistakes since no opponent could land clean punches against him. As he has gotten older, his reflexes have slowed, and he has been unable to avoid punches like in his younger days.

* Ring Activity – While Jones can still show glimmers of his greatness, he often can’t sustain high punch outputs. He is more content to move and pick his shots but that allows opponents to press and more consistent attack against him and land punches that would never have happened in his prime.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Hopkins: (12-3-09) Hopkins returned from a 13-month ring absence to score an effective and workman-like decision over tough-but-limited Enrique Ornelas. Hopkins started slow and took a few rounds to get in a groove but once he did, he dealt out a methodical beating to Ornelas, hurting badly in the final round, before settling for a unanimous 12-round decision.

Jones: (12-3-09) Jones shockingly went under when he fought Danny Greene “Down Under” in Australia. The physical Greene brought the fight to Jones and a right hand sent Jones sprawling only a minute into the bout. Jones tried to weather Greene’s follow-up barrage but he wasn’t punching back and the referee ended up calling a premature stoppage.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Hopkins:
* Felix Trinidad (9/29/01) – Hopkins was the IBF and WBC middleweight champion coming into this unification bout but he was overshadowed by the Puerto Rican superstar and a 3-1 underdog going in. While he promised to match Trinidad in a rough and dirty fight, he shocked everyone, especially Trinidad, by boxing early and building a commanding lead. Trinidad was visibly frustrated going into the latter half of the bout and attacked without abandon. Hopkins took full advantage and punished Trinidad with a variety of power punches, wobbling him at the end of the 10th before finishing him in the 12th to become the unified champion and owner of the Sugar Ray Robinson trophy.
* Glen Johnson (7/20/97) – At the time, it looked like this bout was a masterful win over a boxer with an undefeated albeit padded record. It has become more impressive considering that Johnson has since won versions of the light heavyweight title and scored a spectacular knockout over Roy Jones. Johnson came into the bout with an impressive punch, solid chin, and rugged determination. But it was all Hopkins from the opening bell as he dished out a frightful beating on the inside. Hopkins continued the assault each round, forcing the referee to visit Johnson’s corner several times, before finally halting the contest in the 11th.
* Antonio Tarver (6/10/06) – This was billed as Hopkin’s retirement bout and he was stepping up to a big challenge, taking on the naturally larger light heavyweight champion. Hopkins, coming off of two decision losses to Jermain Taylor, was an underdog coming in, with many of the experts predicting a Tarver win, citing that Hopkins looked lethargic in his last several bouts. The Hopkins that stepped into the ring against Tarver was a muscular 174 and he looked rejuvenated, outboxing and outfighting Tarver throughout, scoring a flash knockdown, and dealing out punishment over the last three rounds, forcing Tarver to hold on to the final bell, only to see Hopkins seize his title with a one-sided decision.

Jones: * James Toney (11/18/94) – This was the first pay-per-view main event for Jones, and it came against Toney, a tough, well-schooled boxer, who many considered the best in the sport. Jones made it look easy, dominating and often toying with a listless Toney from the beginning, and knocking him to the canvas in the 3rd round, and winning a clear unanimous decision by scores of 119-108, 118-109, and 117-110.

* Montell Griffin (8/7/97) – Their first meeting had come five months earlier, with an unfocused Jones struggling with Griffin’s awkward style, before finally losing his title on a disqualification, after he struck Griffin on the canvas. The Jones that came to the rematch was focused and angry, which was evident when he staggered Griffin only moments into the opening round, and nearly decapitated him with a monster left hook, putting Griffin down and out, and winning his title back after only two minutes.

* Virgil Hill (4/25/98) – Hill was a polished professional and former Olympic sliver medalist, who was a long-reigning light heavyweight champion. Jones kept him on the defensive early and was ahead after three rounds, before suddenly ending matters in the 4th, landing a right hand to Hill’s ribs, breaking several and leaving him grimacing on the canvas, victim of an impressive one-punch knockout.

QUESTIONS

Hopkins: * Will Hopkins give away the early rounds again?

* Can Hopkins neutralize Jones’s hand speed?

* Does Hopkins have the power to hurt Jones?

Jones: * Is Jones suffering from a loss of confidence?

* Can Jones still fight three hard minutes a round?

* If he falls behind early, can Jones readjust his game plan?

PENECALE PREDICTION

Jones will open the bout using movement and feinting but throwing very few punches and not landing anything of substance. Hopkins will follow Jones, trying to find punching opportunities. Both fighters will taunt each other and Jones will throw a few hooks while backing up and Hopkins will fire a few wild overhand rights and trying to force his way into a clinch to maul Jones on the inside.

The pace will be rather uneventful for the first few rounds. Jones will want to stay on the outside and Hopkins will look for opportunities to counter. Hopkins will land a straight right hand and tie Jones up and take advantage by throwing short punches with his free hand. Once broken from the clinch, Jones will be back on the move and the crowd will start to get restless but his controlling of the tempo will help him win most of the early rounds.

By the 4th round, Hopkins will start to get into a bit of momentum and find success closing the distance, now firing two-and-three punch combinations at Jones. Jones will respond with quick but ineffective flurries.

After six rounds, Jones will have slight lead on the card but will be starting to slow down, resorting to throwing two-punch combinations, mostly a jab to the head and right to the body or left hook. The slower pace will benefit Hopkins as he will be able to effectively counter what Jones is throwing, and several of his right hands will cause visible damage to Jones’s left eye.

By the 8th and 9th rounds, Hopkins will have taken control but will also have spells of inactivity that lets Jones land a few right hands, but few of consequence. Jones will get back on his toes and try to start boxing from the outside again, but unlike earlier, Hopkins will be cutting the ring off and forcing Jones to stand and trade.

Hopkins will keep trying for the knockout and his chance at getting 60% of the fight purse and he will shake Jones with a combination in the 11th round and mix in a few body shots. But Jones is a proud fighter and he will hold on. Throughout the 12th, Hopkins will have periods where he attacks and goes for the knockout and periods where he eases on the gas pedal.

The fight will go the distance. And the revenge will be served as Hopkins wins a unanimous decision by scores of 115-113 and 116-112 (twice).

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