MOSLEY VS. COTTO PREVIEW
Posted on | November 5, 2007 | 1 Comment
MOSLEY VS. COTTO
** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **
By Tony Penecale
Age vs. Youth. Speed vs. Power. Experience vs. Aggressiveness. It all comes together on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden as one of the best boxers of this generation, Sugar Shane Mosley, steps up to take on the Puerto Rican wrecking machine, Miguel Cotto. These are two of the best welterweights in the world. Ring Magazine ranks Cotto as the #1 contender and Mosley as #3, with the winner looking at a potential superfight with the winner of the welterweight championship match between Floyd Mayweather Jr and Ricky Hatton.
AGE, RECORD, AND STATS
Mosley: Age: 36 years old
Record: 44-4 (37 Knockouts)
Height: 5’9”
Weight: 147 ** Weight for last bout (2-10-07)
Reach: 74”
Cotto : Age: 27 years old
Record: 30-0 (25 Knockouts)
Height: 5’7”
Weight: 146 1/2 ** Weight for last bout (6-9-07)
Reach: 67”
RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Mosley: IBF Lightweight Champion (’97-‘99)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’00-‘02)
WBC & WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’03-’04)
#1 Rated Pound-for-Pound Boxer (’00-’02)
Cotto: WBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’04-‘06)
WBA Welterweight Champion (’06-Pres)
STYLE
Mosley: A well-schooled boxer with exceptional speed and power in both hands, Mosley boxes well from the outside, employing a strategy called “power boxing”. Is very effective with combinations and employs a solid body attack when in close. Is adept at controlling the pace, using angles and feints, forcing opponents into mistakes. Will roll his shoulders and use upper body movement to slip punches and freeze opponents.
Cotto: An aggressive and physical boxer who fights from the orthodox stance, Cotto comes straight ahead, and wears opponents down with a punishing body attack. Cotto favors hooks and uppercuts to straight punches and turns every bout into a war of attrition. Doesn’t have lights-out punching power but is very punishing in the mold of Rocky Marciano, landing strength-sapping bombs to the head and torso. Most of his stoppage victories have come late, after his opponent has been worn down. Will often leave himself open to counters when trying to unleash his offense.
STRENGTHS
Mosley: * Speed – Mosley has blinding hand and foot speed. He can land rapid combinations, move out of harm’s way, and land again before his opponent is even able to set.
* Experience – Mosley has been a championship caliber boxer for a decade now, tangling with top names such as Oscar De la Hoya, Winky Wright, Fernando Vargas, Vernon Forrest, among others. There isn’t a style that he hasn’t faced.
* Durability – Mosley has a solid chin. He has been down once in his career and hurt only on a handful of occasions, even though he has faced several heavy-handed punchers.
Cotto: * Body Attack – Cotto is quite possibly the best body puncher in the sport today. He wings hard hooks on the inside that make contact with whatever is available: ribs, shoulders, torso, chest, and arms, with punishing results. He scored a knockdown over Gianluca Branco with a left hook to the shoulder.
* Strength – Cotto is a strong and physical fighter. While he fights at welterweight, he has the physical stature and physicality of a super middleweight, which he uses to muscle and wear down opponents.
* Heart – Cotto carries a lot of pride when he steps into the ring. He has been wobbled on several occasions and has even touched the canvas a few times, but has always risen and fought back with fury.
WEAKNESSES
Mosley: * Can Be Discouraged – Against the two men to have beaten him, Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright, Mosley seemed to get discouraged when things were tough. Had a tough time cracking their difficult styles and showed frustration.
* Diminishing Power – Despite his impressive KO over Fernando Vargas in their rematch, Mosley’s punching power has diminished over the last several years. While still an impressive boxer, he doesn’t take his opponents out like he once did. Aside from the two stoppage wins over Vargas, his last win inside the distance came in ’01.
* Sizzle – At times, Mosley’s offense will contain more sizzle than steak. He will move and feint, and while his moves are slick and eye-catching; there is more style than substance which doesn’t score points.
Cotto: * Defense – Cotto’s best defense is a good offense and he often neglects the defensive part of his game. Cotto can be hit and that can be dangerous against a sharp puncher like Mosley.
* Chin – Combined with an offense that leaves him prone to counter punches, Cotto’s shaky chin can be a recipe for disaster. Cotto was wobbled against moderate punchers Demarcus Corley and Zab Judah, and was down several times and in serious trouble against Ricardo Torres.
* Foot Speed – Cotto has a tendency to plod when in the ring. Will often have difficulty when opponents use lateral movement against him.
3 BEST PERFORMANCES
Mosley: * Oscar De la Hoya (6/17/00) – Mosley had moved up from lightweight only nine months prior, skipping over the junior welterweight division, and challenged on of the sports top boxers. In a thrilling encounter, Mosley rallied down the stretch, out-punching the bigger champion in winning an exciting split decision.
* Fernando Vargas (7/15/06) – The first bout between these two warriors saw Mosley win when Vargas was unable to continue due to damage around his eyes. It was competitive enough to warrant a rematch. Mosley rendered the rematch a mismatch, keeping Vargas off balance, before flattening him with a homerun left hook in the 6th round, setting up the stoppage moments later
* Wilfredo Ruiz (6/27/98) – Mosley was originally set to defend against Ivan “Mighty” Robinson in Robinson’s hometown of Philadelphia. When Robinson was injured in sparring, Ruiz was brought in and while Mosley was expected to win, he stole the show. Ruiz was wobbled in the opening seconds and Mosley dished out a shellacking before finishing Ruiz with an impressive combo in the 5th round, wowing the hard-to-impress Philadelphia crowd.
Cotto: * Zab Judah (6/09/07) – Had to endure some difficult moments early, getting rocked and suffering a cut under his lip. Kept pressing Judah, sapping his strength, dropping him in the 9th before finally stopping him in 11 rounds.
* Mohamad Abdulaev (6/11/05) – Systematically broke down Abdulaev over 9 rounds, swelling his eye completely shut, and forcing him to surrender. An impressive performance against the highly-respected 2000 Olympic Gold Medalist.
* Ricardo Torres (9/24/05) – Little was known about the Columbian coming into the bout except for his sparkling 28-0 (26) record. Both boxers traded knockdowns and took turns having the other in serious trouble. Eventually, it was Cotto’s punishing body attack that sapped Torres’ strength and set him up for the stoppage.
QUESTIONS
Mosley: * Will Mosley’s 36 year-old legs hold up under Cotto’s relentless pressure and body attack?
* Will he survive if he gets drawn into a slugfest with the physically-imposing Cotto?
* Can he win a decision in a close fight in what will be surely a partisan Cotto environment?
Cotto: * Will Cotto be overzealous in trying to put on an impressive show and run himself into Mosley’s sharp counter punches?
* Will Cotto be able to cope with Mosley’s tremendous speed and boxing ability?
* Is the rapidly-growing Cotto already struggling to make 147 and weakening himself in the process?
PENECALE PREDICTION
This expects to be exciting from the outset. Cotto is going to try and press the action from the outset while Mosley will work from the outside, feinting, giving angles, and spearing Cotto with jabs from the outside. Cotto will keep pressing and Mosley will stop to exchange body punches with him, outlanding Cotto 3-to-1.
By the 3rd round, Mosley will be boxing well, jabbing and moving to his left to neutralize Cotto’s left hook. The ultra-aggressive Cotto will start to attack without caution. An advancing Cotto will be stunned with a lead left hook and a Mosley follow-up combination will put Cotto on the seat of his pants. He will rise and look to survive by any means necessary, even using rough-house tactics, which will enable him to get through the round and clear his head.
Cotto will be on the attack again in the 4th round but the pattern will resemble the bouts between Bernard Hopkins-Felix Trinidad and Marco Antonio Barrera-Prince Naseem Hamed, where the superior boxing ability of Mosley will allow him to score at will and move out of danger.
Behind on the cards, Cotto will unleash a furious assault in the 7th and 8th rounds. He will work on backing Mosley to the ropes and will have some success, landing body shots and outworking Sugar Shane.
Mosley will regroup in the 9th and start using his legs again and re-establishing his ground on the outside. Cotto will show the effects of the bout on his face, with bruising around the eyes and blood trickling from the mouth, but he will keep advancing forward.
Over the last three rounds, Mosley will use Cotto’s aggressiveness against him, hitting him as he advances and moving out of danger. The crowd will not be satisfied with Mosley’s unwillingness to engage Cotto in a toe-to-toe slugfest but in the end it will be a wise tactic as Mosley will coast to a unanimous decision victory by the margin of 117-110 or 116-111.