PENECALE’S PREDICTION FOR ROY JONES, JR. VS. FELIX TRINIDAD

Posted on | January 15, 2008 | No Comments

TRINIDAD VS. JONES

** In-Depth Preview and Analysis **

By Tony Penecale

In 2001, the most-anticipated potential superfight was between Ring Magazine’s top two pound-for-pound boxers. Felix Trinidad, ranked #2, was undefeated and annihilating everybody in his path as he rose from the welterweight through middleweight divisions. Roy Jones Jr., ranked #1. was one of boxing brightest stars and the undisputed light heavyweight champion. All Trinidad had to do was defeat Bernard Hopkins in the culmination of the middleweight championship series and the bout with Jones would be a reality. But fate intervened and Hopkins emerged victorious, sending Trinidad into periods of inactivity, only competing three times since. Jones went on his own way, eventually winning a version of the heavyweight title, before losing three straight bouts and contemplating retirement. Now six years later, two of the generations most dominant boxers will finally meet at the contracted weight of 170 lbs.

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Trinidad: Age: 35 years old
Record: 42-2 (35 Knockouts)
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 160 ** Weight for last bout (5-14-05)
Reach: 72″

Jones : Age: 39 years old
Record: 51-4 (38 Knockouts)
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 175 ** Weight for last bout (7-14-07)
Reach: 74″

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Trinidad: IBF Welterweight Champion (’93-’00)
WBC Welterweight Champion (’99-’00)
IBF & WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’00-’01)
WBA Middleweight Champion (’01)

Jones: IBF Middleweight Champion (’93-’94)
IBF Super Middleweight Champion (’94-’96)
WBC Light Heavyweight Champion (’96-’04)
WBA Light Heavyweight Champion (’98-’04)
IBF Light Heavyweight Champion (’99-’04)
WBA Heavyweight Champion (’03)
Ring Magazine #1 Rated Pound-4-Pound Boxer (’94-’97)

STYLE

Trinidad: Boxing from a high guard, Trinidad stalks his opponents from the opening bell, as if he is on a seek-and-destroy mission. Trinidad uses his jab to open up his offensive arsenal, which includes a destructive left hook, which he delivers to either the head or body, and capable of changing the momentum in an instant. He has shown good recuperative powers, rising from knockdowns in several fights, going on to win by knockout.

Jones: Often with his hands at his waist, Jones relies on his natural speed and reflexes to outmaneuver and overwhelm opponents. Jones will sometimes abandon the jab and use lead hooks from the outside, either as a set up or a knockout punch. Once an opponent has been hurt, Jones will fire a volley of punches to the head, often punctuated by double and tripling his left hook.

STRENGTHS

Trinidad: * Power ? Ever since he emerged as a world class fighter, Trinidad’s explosive power has been his trademark. He won 13 of his 16 welterweight title fights by knockout, along with handing knockout losses to world-class fighters such as Fernando Vargas, William Joppy, and Ricardo Mayorga.

* Determination ? In several title fights, Trinidad hit the canvas early, only to rise and weather the storm from an over-zealous opponent. Trinidad would then seem energized and fight back with fury, usually winning by knockout shortly after.

* Home-Field Advantage ? The crowd at Madison Square Garden will be mostly pro-Trinidad. He is an icon to Puerto Rican fans and his coming back from a three-year retirement will have them in a patriotic frenzy.

Jones: * Experience ? Boxing has been with Jones since his father trained him when he was very young. Completed an extensive amateur career by winning the silver medal in the ’88 Olympic games (dubious scoring robbed him of the gold medal). He has been competing successfully on a championship level for the past 15 years, facing and defeating all styles.

* Speed ? While his hand and foot speed has diminished since his prime, Jones still has a quick trigger. He doesn’t throw punches in bunches like he once did but he still is adept at throwing two or three quick punches before moving from danger.

* Size ? In the last decade, Jones has competed at light heavyweight and has even bulked up to fight at heavyweight. Using the help of fitness guru Mackie Shilstone, Jones maintained his muscle and strength, which gives him a significant advantage over an opponent who has never competed above 160 lbs.

WEAKNESSES

Trinidad: * Foot Speed ? It has been discovered that the best way to neutralize Trinidad’s offense is moving on angles and using a jab to keep him from getting set. The game plan was devised by Oscar De la Hoya, in losing a close decision to Trinidad, then perfected by Bernard Hopkins and Winky Wright, both who handily defeated him.

* One Demensional ? This flaw was fully exposed in the losses to Hopkins and Wright. In both scenarios, Trinidad was being out-boxed and absorbing punches. He was unable to make adjustments to his game plan and became discouraged with the passing of each round.

* Chin ? Even though he was off-balance many times when he was knocked down, Trinidad’s chin has always been shaky. He was legitimately stunned against Vargas, and he was battered and knocked out by Hopkins.

Jones: * Chin ? For many years, Jones seemed invincible. Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson finally found out that if Jones was hit solidly on the chin, there was a weakness. Jones lost back-to-back knockout losses, including a frightening loss to Johnson, where Jones remained unconscious for several minutes.

* Age ? In his prime, Jones was able to depend on his reflexes to compensate for some fundamental mistakes since no opponent could land clean punches against him. As he has gotten older, his reflexes have slowed, and he has been unable to avoid punches like in his younger days.

* Weight ? This bout is being held at a contract weight of 170 lbs. After his move to heavyweight, Jones admittedly had problems getting back to 175 lbs. Squeezing out an additional five lbs will not be easy and may affect his stamina.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Trinidad: Trinidad was outboxed and outpunched over 12 rounds, losing a wide unanimous decision to underdog Winky Wright. Trinidad was ineffective against Wright’s southpaw jab and tight defense and unable to readjust his gameplan during the bout, losing by the scores of 120-107 and 119-108 (twice). The most telling stat was he was outlanded by Wright 262-58 overall and 185-15 in jabs.

Jones: Jones endured a challenge from the determined but limited Anthony Hanshaw, knocking him down once, in winning a unanimous decision. Hanshaw pressed the action against Jones but was unable to consistently land clean punches. Jones was successful boxing from the outside and scored a quick knockdown in the 11th round, prevailing by scores of 118-109, 117-110, and 114-113.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Trinidad: * Fernando Vargas (12/2/00) ? This title unification bout pitted two undefeated champions against each other. What resulted was the 2000 Ring Magazine Fight of the Year. Vargas was a young and fiery champion who vowed to fight Trinidad from the start. Trinidad blasted him to the canvas twice in the 1st round before Vargas recovered and fought back, knocking Trinidad to the canvas in the 4th round. The epic struggle, and some would argue Trinidad’s low blows, drained Vargas down the stretch and Trinidad finished the job with three brutal knockdowns in the 12th round, forcing the referee to stop the bout.

* William Joppy (5/12/01) ? In Trinidad’s first bout at middleweight, he took on defending WBA Champion Joppy, in the semi-finals in the middleweight title tournament. Many thought the quick-fisted and naturally larger Joppy would present problems for Trinidad but late in the 1st round, Trinidad stunned him with a combination and floored him with a crushing hook. Joppy survived and fought on wobbly legs until Trinidad drilled him again in the 4th round and finally finished him off with a vicious knockout in round 5.

* Yori Boy Campas (9/17/94) ? Trinidad was making his 4th defense of the IBF welterweight title when he took on the undefeated Mexican powerpuncher Campas. After going down from a left hook in the 2nd round, Trinidad started taking control and battering Campas in the 3rd. With Campas hurt against the ropes in the 4th, Trinidad unleashed a powerful barrage of punches, leaving Campas defenseless and shattering his nose in the process.

Jones: * James Toney (11/18/94) ? This was the first pay-per-view main event for Jones, and it came against Toney, a tough, well-schooled boxer, who many considered the best in the sport. Jones made it look easy, dominating a listless Toney from the beginning, and knocking him to the canvas in the 3rd round, and winning a clear unanimous decision by scores of 119-108, 118-109, and 117-110.

* Montell Griffin (8/7/97) ? Their first meeting had come five months earlier, with an unfocused Jones struggling with Griffin’s awkward style, before finally losing his title on a disqualification, after he struck Griffin on the canvas. The Jones that came to the rematch was focused and angry, which was evident when he staggered Griffin only moments into the opening round, and nearly decapitated him with a monster left hook, winning his title back after only two minutes.

* Virgil Hill (4/25/98) ? Hill was a polished professional who was a long-reigning light heavyweight champion. Jones kept him on the defensive early and was ahead after three rounds, before suddenly ending matters in the 4th, landing a right hand to Hill?s ribs, breaking several and leaving him grimacing on the canvas.

QUESTIONS

Trinidad: * How rusty will he be after returning from nearly three years in retirement?

* Will he be able to readjust his gamplan if he falls behind early?

* Will his power be effective at a higher weight against a naturally larger fighter?

Jones: * Will Jones weaken himself trying to get down to 170 lbs?

* Can Jones’ chin absorb Trinidad’s power punches?

* Will the partisan Trinidad crowd force Jones out of his gameplan?

PENECALE PREDICTION

When this bout was discussed several years ago, most boxing experts figured the Jones would be too fast and too large for Trinidad, with one even saying that if Trinidad kept moving up in weight at such a rapid pace that he would “run into doomsday” AKA Roy Jones Jr. Six years later, with both men past their primes, the determining factor will be that Jones is still too fast and still too large for Trinidad.

Trinidad will come forward early and Jones will be content to keep him away, boxing from the outside and using his natural advantage in foot speed to keep out of danger. A part-time semi pro basketball player, Jones will make good use of pivots, landing one or two quick punches, and then pivoting to end up on the side or even behind Trinidad. Jones will also jab to the head and fire a right hand to the body, a combination he has relied on since the first fight with Antonio Tarver. It will be effective in scoring points and keeping Trinidad off balance.

After losing the first two rounds, Trinidad will begin to apply more pressure, hoping to land power shots and change the momentum in his favor. Jones will counteract by employing more lateral movement and staying a step or two ahead of Trinidad. Trinidad will have a few moments where he is able to trap Jones on the ropes and fire away with both hands to the body and head. Jones will be able to block most with his arms but a few will be through to his body, with minimal effect.

Trinidad will start to show signs of frustration and discouragement in the 5th round and Jones will start to stand in front of him more often, landing at will with quick left hooks and right hands.

Early in the 7th round, with Jones winning the first six, Trinidad will look to pressure Jones on the ropes again. Jones will spring off the ropes with a left hook that staggers Trinidad and a follow up left hook-right hand combination will drop Trinidad against the ropes. He will be able to pull himself up and signal to the referee that he can continue. Jones will move in for the kill and land a flurry of hooks that sends Trinidad stumbling back into a corner, where his father and trainer Don Felix will throw in the towel, saving his son from any additional punishment.