Rua (+160) vs Jones (-200)

Jon “Bones” Jones (12-1) takes on UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (19-4) Saturday night at UFC 128 in a main event that’s already generating plenty of hype before any punches are thrown. The only blemish on the record of the challenger, a native of neighboring New York, is a disqualification loss to Matt Hamill back in 2009. “Shogun” enters the Octagon with the experience factor in his favor with 10 more overall fights, but he hasn’t been in action since UFC 113 in May of last year where he won his coveted Light Heavyweight Championship belt by demolishing Lyoto Machida in the first round. Jones, on the other hand, is entering the cage fresh off a an early February submission of Ryan Bader at UFC 126.

Jones is a rising star in the UFC who I personally watched fight when he came up through the New England MMA scene. I was there to see him make quick work of Ryan Verrett at USFL’s War in the Woods III at Foxwoods back in May of 2008 with a thundering right hand that set up the TKO. During an interview I did with “The Voice of the Octagon” Bruce Buffer last August, Jones came up in conversation as one of the most promising prospects in the league. Does he have enough promise to beat a guy as well-rounded as Rua, though?

Other than what many experts argue was a ripoff, bogus loss to Lyoto Machida by decision in his first shot at the UFC belt, Rua’s only been beaten by real legends of the sport thus far in his career. The Machida robbery was only the third fight in his entire career to go to a decision, and he’s only had six total fights make it past the opening bell for the third round. Rua’s had 16 of his 23 professional fights end in the first round, and his only loss in that group of quick finishes was to a prime Mark Coleman at PRIDE 31 in February of 2006. It took a broken arm back then to take Rua out of the fight that early. His only other two losses came by way of rear naked choke from Forrest Griffin in 2007 and a Guillotine Choke from a young Renato “Babalu” Sobral in 2003. Rua spent the bulk of his career in PRIDE before transitioning to the UFC with the loss to Griffin at UFC 76 and then vanquishing his loss to Coleman in his very next fight.

This fight is tough to call, but it seems safe to bet that it won’t make it to the final bell. Jones will have the reach advantage with the striking, and he’ll need to use leg kicks to soften the lead leg of Rua to take away his power. Steady movement around the cage will keep him away from any wild bombs from Rua that might do damage while both men do battle on their feet. It seems highly unlikely that this will turn into a grappling match, but if it does Rua has the jiu jitsu to beat Jones.

PREDICTION: Jones wins by TKO by using all points of contact: fists, feet, knees, and elbows. Look for the finish to come at the end of an all out war in the first round or early in the second round. It will be the continuation of a theme that’s been playing out for the past few years in this sport. Rua, ever the old school warrior, will come in overconfident, only to find himself drowning  in the deep water Jones brings him to. The younger, more fine-tuned all-around athletes like Jones have learned early on in their careers that they need a little bit of every discipline to keep winning in this sport, and Jones looks unbeatable right now as he keeps putting it all together.

THE UNDERCARD:

Urijah Faber (24-4) vs. Eddie Wineland (18-6-1): These two WEC veterans will both be making their debut in the Octagon. Faber is the easy favorite, since as long as it’s not Mike Brown or Jose Aldo across the cage from him, Faber seems to dominate. Wineland will have to walk on water to win this one.

Joseph Benavides (13-2) vs. Ian Loveland (14-7): This will be a much better fight than it looks like on paper. 7s are wild for Loveland as he’s on a 7 fight win streak and hasn’t lost since 2007. Benavides has only lost to Dominick Cruz, who took him to two tough decisions. If this fight goes the distance, Benavides should take it easily, but it’s tough to go against a fighter who’s on such a roll. Benavides has a great record, but it will be his first time on the big stage and he’s been in the same league for the last few years while Loveland’s been all over the place facing all kinds of different talent. Loveland, who’s already busted his UFC cherry with a win over Tyler Toner, should take this fight if it doesn’t reach the final bell.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filopovic (27-8-2) vs. Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub (7-1): “Cro Cop” is on his last legs, and Schaub just sent the same guy (Gabriel Gonzaga) packing that leveled the Croatian with a well-placed head kick for the knockout back in 2007. Schaub will pick apart Filopovic and retire another legend with an impressive knockout that will illustrate how far he’s come since taking a tough loss against Roy Nelson in December of 2009 at the Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale.

Jim Miller (19-2) vs. Kamal Shalorous (7-0-2): Miller is the obvious on-paper favorite with Shalrous making his UFC debut in this fight. At first glance this might seem like a harsh initiation ritual since Miller’s only lost to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard and has never been knocked out or submitted in his pro MMA career. Shalorous has a very unique and unpredictable style of fighting, though. His wrestling and jiu jitsu will be on full display in this fight, but it’s his striking that will win it for him and break the trend for Miller. Shalorous wins by KO in the third round after a very competitive first two rounds.

Nate “The Great” Marquardt (30-10-2) vs. Dan Miller (13-4): Miller is in over his head in this one, and Marquardt will use his huge experience advantage to beat him all over the cage. Miller will have a tough time scoring points against the crafty veteran. Marquardt wins by late stoppage or unanimous decision.

Raphael Assuncao (16-3) vs. Eric Koch (11-1): Both of these fighters will be making their UFC debut in this fight, and while Assuncao has the edge in experience, Koch has better finishing skills. Koch will win by submisstion, as 7 of his 11 wins have gone down that way, and his lone loss came against an undefeated Chad “Money” Mendes.

Ricardo Almeida (13-4) vs. Mike Pyle (20-7-1): 16 of Pyle’s 20 wins come by way of submission. Almeida, despite being a student of Gracie Jiu Jitsu, has more decisions (8) than submissions (5) to his credit in the win column. Pyle will sneak up on him and suck him in, living true to his “quicksand” nickname and earning Submission of the Night honors.

Kurt Pellegrino (16-5) vs. Gleison Tibau (21-7): This should be the most competitive fight of the night with Pellegrino edging out a decision. Both men fought common opponents and had similar results. Pellegrino leans heavily toward submissions, but these guys are so well matched it’s tough to see this one ending early for any reason.

Anthony Njokuani (13-4) vs. Edson Mendes Barboza, Jr. (7-0): Njokuani’s been in against tougher competition for a lot longer than Barboza has, but with 5 out of 7 fights ending before the bell to end the first round and 6 of his wins by KO, Barboza’s striking is too phenomenal to let him down in this fight. Though it might not be in the first round this time against a solid WEC veteran like Njokuani, Barboza will get the job done with a TKO early in the fight.

Constantinos Philippou (7-1) vs. Nick Catone (8-2): This is Philippou’s UFC debut while Catone’s lost 2 out of his 4 appearances in the Octagon. Phillippou’s only loss came in his first fight, and all of his fights have been with Ring of Fire. Catone’s got the better fighting experience and the tougher list of opponents, but Phillippou’s got a hard to argue against win streak. Experience wins the day and Catone comes away with the decision in this fight.

Luiz Artur Cain, Jr. (10-3) vs. Eliot “The Fire” Marshall (10-2): Cain’s coming off two back to back first-round losses. Marshall’s got the better record, but no real headliners as opponents. Cain will bounce back and bounce Marshall’s head off the mat with some amazing ground and pound to finish this fight by knockout in the first round, reversing the curse.